Concerns about the possibility of a large-scale war have risen sharply worldwide. Over the past two years, in the eyes of experts, it has gone from being a relatively distant threat to one of the most acute global risks. This is stated in a new UN report.
The study is based on responses from 1,300 representatives of governments, international organisations, civil society, the private sector and the academic community from all regions of the world.
Participants assessed 28 political, economic, environmental, social and technological risks, including the likelihood of their occurrence, their potential consequences and the international community’s preparedness to address them.
The world is not prepared for war
Respondents also identified large-scale war as one of the threats for which the international community is least prepared. It was the only global risk to feature in the top six across all four indicators: significance, immediacy, interconnection with other risks and insufficient preparedness to respond.
Overall, perceptions of global risks have changed significantly over the past two years. Whilst in 2024 environmental threats, disinformation and pandemics were the greatest causes for concern, geopolitical tensions, war and the erosion of the rule of law have now come to the fore.
“The findings are sobering. Political risks have come to the fore. The prospect of large-scale war is perceived as a far more significant and far more imminent threat than it was two years ago,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in the foreword to the report.
“At the same time, the institutions expected to respond are perceived as being less prepared to act,” he added.
Respondents view global threats as interconnected
The report emphasises that global threats do not exist in isolation from one another. Respondents view the scarcity of natural resources, economic fragmentation, disinformation and the weakening of multilateral institutions as factors capable of exacerbating geopolitical tensions, which, in turn, increase the risk of large-scale war. The link between geopolitical tensions and war proved to be the strongest of the 705 interrelationships identified in the survey.
The report pays particular attention to artificial intelligence. The risks associated with AI and other cutting-edge technologies, as well as with the concentration of power through technology, are now perceived as far more serious than they were two years ago. At the same time, according to respondents, it is precisely technological threats for which the multilateral system is least prepared.
Despite this shift in perception, inaction on climate change is still seen as the most significant global risk. It ranks highly across all regions, whilst potential shortages of natural resources are also a cause for serious concern in various parts of the world.
The authors warn that the decline in the ranking of certain environmental risks does not mean that the threats themselves have become less serious. What has changed, above all, is the perception of their significance and urgency. However, public and political attention influences the allocation of resources, meaning that issues receiving less attention may also be deprived of the necessary funding.
Joint action by governments is seen as the most effective response
Respondents cited weak management or coordination mechanisms, a lack of political consensus, and a lack of trust and accountability as the main obstacles to effective risk management. Other frequently mentioned barriers included misplaced priorities, strong resistance from the public, political forces or the business sector, as well as a lack of data and information.
Eighty-six per cent of respondents stated that funding for risk mitigation and reduction measures is insufficient. The report explicitly identifies the lack of funding as an obstacle to tackling hazardous natural phenomena and the potential collapse of multilateral institutions.
The UN emphasises that the report reflects perceptions of risk rather than predicting the future. However, perceptions of threats influence political decisions and the allocation of resources – and may therefore largely determine which crises the world will be able to prevent.
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