First of all, experts from the influential American institute note that the images of the debris at the site of the drone that crashed into a residential building in Galati refer to a “Shahed-type drone”, with the Geran-2 being a Russian version of the Iranian model Shahed-136, the document said.
ISW then notes that this is the first Russian incursion resulting in civilian casualties in a NATO member country. U.S. experts analyze the multiple violations of Romanian airspace, as well as the notable attack on September 10, when 19 Russian drones deliberately entered Poland, and conclude that “Russia’s increasing incursions of Russian drones into NATO airspace demonstrate that Russian President Vladimir Putin is pursuing a reckless policy of accepting the risk of Russian drones entering NATO airspace. Putin now appears to be accepting the risk of causing civilian casualties in NATO countries as a result of Russia’s campaign of attacks.”
ISW then analyzes a statement by Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev, who wrote that “European states are direct participants in the war against Russia, and [European countries] haven’t seen anything yet…so they better get used to it. This will not be the last time.”
“Medvedev’s response actually threatens Romania and other European states with more drone strikes if these states continue to support Ukraine. (…) Medvedev often makes more radical and extravagant statements than other Kremlin officials, but his statements still reflect the threats the Kremlin wants to make, which Putin himself has previously conveyed to the West,” ISW notes.
Romanian army response
Experts then focus on statements by Romanian army commanders that Romanian law prohibits Romanian air defense systems from operating in ways that affect the airspace of a neighboring country, including launching projectiles that could penetrate Ukrainian airspace.
“Given the restrictions imposed on Romania’s air defense operations, NATO may need to consider possible air defense agreements with Ukraine and Moldova as a self-defense measure against Russian drone attacks on NATO countries, regardless of whether Russian drone incursions are accidental or deliberate. The Kremlin has observed NATO’s reaction to previous Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace, especially during the peak period in the fall of 2025, and is likely using the May 29 attack in Romania to test NATO’s reaction to both the drone incursion itself and the Kremlin’s rhetoric, regardless of whether the May 29 incursion was accidental or deliberate. Such incursions and attacks are likely to continue as long as Russian forces continue to use drones near NATO’s borders. NATO may need to adjust its air defense policies and mechanisms to protect its own population from Russia’s recklessness,” ISW concludes.
