According to Reuters, citing data from Energy Aspects analysts, Europe could face a jet fuel supply shortfall of nearly 600,000 barrels per day in the third quarter. At the same time, the U.S. and countries in the Asia-Pacific region, by contrast, are expected to have a surplus—about 116,000 and 425,000 barrels per day, respectively.
Europe’s main problem is its limited domestic fuel production capacity. Over the past few decades, the region has lost some of its oil refining capacity, which has increased its dependence on imports, including from the Middle East.
The United Kingdom, France, and Germany remain the most vulnerable. For these countries, supplies through the Strait of Hormuz—one of the main routes for global trade in oil and liquefied natural gas—play a crucial role.
In early June, jet fuel stocks in Europe stood at about 38 million barrels. By comparison, in the U.S., this figure reached 99 million barrels. According to Reuters estimates, European reserves are sufficient for less than a month of market operations. This is the lowest level among the world’s major regions.
The situation is complicated by instability in the Middle East. Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was at risk of disruption. Although it partially reopened in June, tensions remain high, and new attacks have called the stability of the ceasefire into question.
