News about Macroeconomics

Major investors are predicting the collapse of the neural network economy in its current form. Billionaire Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has predicted the deflation of the artificial intelligence bubble. The reasons will be related not so much to the financial failure of companies working in this field, but to the banal desire of investors to lock in profits. All the signs of retreat are already in place. Meanwhile, a downturn in the AI sector could hit the broader economy: first of all, the American economy, but eventually the global economy as well.

The Republic of Moldova ranked 101st in the Global Investment Risk and Sustainability Index as of May 2026, dropping by 19 positions over the year.

Today, nine states wish to join the European Union. The process is delayed due to the complicated accession procedure. However, as early as 2028, the European Union may admit a new, 28th member.

Last year, the degree of utilization of funds from external sources amounted to 96.2%, decreasing compared to the previous year. Out of the total amount of 16.7 billion lei allocated from external sources, 78.2 per cent was used to support the state budget and only 21.8 per cent to implement development projects. This is stated in the Audit Chamber’s audit report on the government’s fulfillment of the state budget in 2025. This applies both to loans taken by the government and grants.

Moldova is implementing a new mechanism for calculating and adjusting the minimum wage in accordance with the EU Adequate Minimum Wages Directive. The government will be obliged to review this indicator annually, using 50% of the projected average monthly wage for the economy as a benchmark.

Moldovan Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Mihai Popşoi, who is a Romanian citizen, supports unification with this country and is ready to vote for it if a referendum is held. He made this statement on air on the Vocea Basarabiei radio station.

Yesterday, the World Bank Board of Directors approved a Growth and Sustainability Policy Loan (DPL) to Moldova. The credit line is intended to strengthen competitiveness, job creation, market efficiency and transparency, and economic integration with the European Union (EU).

The unemployment rate in the first quarter at the national level amounted to 10.4% against the previously declared 3-4%, calculated according to the ILO methodology. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) cited the data, arguing that the new figures are based on the transition of the agency from 2026 to the labor force survey instruments according to the standards of the European Union.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predicts a recession in Romania’s economy in 2026.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downwardly revised Moldova’s economic growth forecast for 2026 amid risks caused by the war, energy crisis and instability of international markets.

Moldova’s state budget deficit in January-April 2026 was almost half (by 47.9%) higher than in the same period of 2025.

The European Commission warns of the possible loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs in the EU years amid high energy prices, industrial restructuring and the transition to a “green” economy.

About 9% of workers in the European Union are in a situation of forced non-standard employment, when people work on temporary contracts, part-time or short-term assignments due to the lack of opportunity to find a permanent job. This is stated in a study by Eurofound – the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions.

A recent study on the poverty rate presented by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) does not give a clear answer as to whether poverty is increasing or decreasing in Moldova.

About two-thirds of the world’s richest families expect a weakening of confidence in the dollar as the world’s reserve currency and are already reviewing their asset structure amid geopolitical uncertainty and rising U.S. government debt.

The Moldovan government is raising the cost of domestic borrowing. The Ministry of Finance announced the launch of a new subscription round for government securities (GS) for the period from June 2 to June 14, 2026 through the eVMS.md platform. The fixed interest rates for all subscription terms for government securities (GS) for individuals from the May subscription round remain increased from 7.45% to 7.85%, making investments for citizens more attractive and profitable compared to bank deposits.

In the first quarter of 2026, the average monthly wage in Moldova decreased by 2.3% compared to the last quarter of 2025, although in annual terms it continued to grow. The decline is due to the high base effect: bonuses and annual bonuses are traditionally paid at the end of the year, so there is a seasonal decline at the beginning of the following year.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has published updated data on poverty measurement according to a new methodology, according to which last year’s figures look much better than those presented earlier. Both monetary and non-monetary poverty, according to the NBS, are retreating, but not losing ground in Moldova.

The indicator significantly exceeded the ECB’s target of 2%. The main reason was energy price inflation, which rose by 10.9% year-on-year. The preliminary data paves the way for an ECB interest rate hike at next week’s meeting. Before the conflict in Iran, inflation in the eurozone was below 2%.

The US is discussing the possibility of expanding NATO’s nuclear infrastructure in Europe. The Financial Times reports, citing sources, that Washington is considering the deployment of dual-capable aircraft in additional countries of the alliance.