According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, the cost of acquiring new customers continues to rise across the sector and this will be a key theme in 2026.
The market is divided into three camps
The main challenge for retailers today is simple: each new customer is more expensive than before.
The reason is a combination of factors: wary consumers, pressure on budgets due to high energy prices, and increased competition in digital advertising. As a result, companies are forced to either increase marketing spend or reallocate it to more precise and smarter channels.
The market has split into three camps. For example, big players are stepping up marketing to protect their positions. Brands that have lost momentum are trying to regain audience attention. And price retailers are aggressively fighting for the frugal shopper.
After recent quarterly reports, some companies have already openly stated that investing in loyalty is becoming a priority. This helps retain customers, but almost always eats into profits.
Who wins in the new environment
Deutsche Bank notes a noticeable stratification within the sector. Some companies have already adapted to the new cost of marketing and may even benefit from a reallocation of advertising budgets.
Birkenstock, Burlington and Ross Stores are among the potential beneficiaries.
At the same time, players such as Nike, Lululemon, Ulta Beauty and Bath & Body Works will have to increase spending to maintain their position in the battle for consumers.
But companies like American Eagle, Five Below, Ralph Lauren and TJX Companies appear more prepared: they have begun to rely on more flexible marketing strategies earlier.
Deutsche Bank believes the market has entered a phase where “growth at all costs” no longer works. The winner is no longer the one who simply spends more, but the one who understands where and why he spends.
