Economic growth in the developing countries of Europe and Central Asia is set to slow to 2.2 per cent in 2026 (compared with 2.6 per cent in 2025) due to higher prices for imported energy and general market uncertainty.
Against this backdrop, Moldova’s GDP growth in 2026 is forecast to remain at the same level as in June – 1.9 per cent. The main constraints remain the consequences of past energy shocks, inflationary risks, a weak inflow of private investment and the government budget deficit.
Nevertheless, the bank’s experts are optimistic about the medium-term outlook. In 2027, Moldova’s economic growth is expected to accelerate to 3 per cent (the forecast has been revised upwards by 0.1 percentage points compared with the June review), whilst growth of 3.2 per cent is expected in 2028.
Drivers and barriers to the Moldovan economy
Domestic demand in Moldova is showing relative resilience, driven by rising real wages (up 3.3 per cent in the first half of the year) and social support measures for the population. Furthermore, EU and international financial institutions are providing significant support for public investment as part of a large-scale Growth Plan.
Nevertheless, the bank’s analysts point to a major domestic barrier: in order to fully realise its economic potential, Moldova needs to accelerate the removal of bureaucratic hurdles associated with obtaining permits.
This story was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.The translation was also reviewed by the Logos Press editorial team.
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