Moldova’s Central Bank Says Excessive Lending Risks Remain Moderate

NBM: The risk of excessive lending remains moderate

The share of non-performing (distressed) loans in the banking system stood at 5.2 per cent of the total loan portfolio as at mid-2026. The lending boom continues to grow at a rapid pace; however, the National Bank assesses the associated risks as manageable. This information is presented following the latest meeting of the National Committee on Financial Stability.

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According to data presented by the NBM, bank lending in the country is expanding faster than gross domestic product (GDP). The ratio of outstanding loans to GDP has exceeded its long-term trend for the seventh consecutive quarter.

Despite such prolonged and dynamic growth, the regulator characterises the overall level of systemic risk as moderate. At the same time, experts highlight the need for constant monitoring of the quality of commercial banks’ loan portfolios to prevent a deterioration in borrowers’ solvency under current economic conditions.

The current overall ratio (5.2 per cent) has risen by approximately 1 percentage point compared with the start of 2026, reaching a two-year high, but historically it remains at a relatively low level. This is mainly due to qualitative criteria for loan assessment (for example, the lack of up-to-date information on receivables).

At the same time, the level of non-performing loans remained relatively stable and, in accordance with IFRS 9, stood at 1.4 per cent, which is comparable to the regional average.

In the retail sector (private individuals), the proportion of non-performing loans amongst the population rose to 4.9 per cent. The situation is more complex with mortgages. There, according to NBM estimates, the proportion of non-performing loans increased to 8.6 per cent. However, the actual proportion of payments more than 90 days past due is only 0.3 per cent, which indicates a technical downgrade in classification rather than widespread defaults.

Consumer loans are also ‘keeping pace’: the proportion of non-performing loans has reached 7.2 per cent (whilst the actual proportion of arrears exceeding 90 days stands at just 0.8 per cent). Despite a moderate increase in the overall proportion of non-performing loans, the NBM emphasises that the risk profile of retail borrowers remains conservative: almost 77 per cent of new loans are granted to individuals whose debt servicing costs do not exceed 40 per cent of their monthly income.

This story was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.The translation was also reviewed by the Logos Press editorial team.

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