Wheat
According to the September forecast, global wheat production in the 2026/27 season will total 822.43 million tonnes, which is 3.13 million tonnes more than the agency had forecast in August this year (819.3 million tonnes). The estimate for global exports has been revised down to 211.77 million tonnes, compared with the 212.71 million tonnes forecast a month earlier. Ending stocks have been revised up to 276.29 million tonnes (273.25 million tonnes in August).
The forecast for wheat production in China remains unchanged at 141 million tonnes. Imports of this grain into the country are also estimated at the same level – 6 million tonnes – whilst ending stocks stand at 120.2 million tonnes.
The forecast for wheat production in Russia has been reduced by 0.5 million tonnes to 88 million tonnes, whilst exports have been reduced by 3 million tonnes to 43 million tonnes. Ending stocks of Russian wheat are expected to rise by 2.5 million tonnes to 16.09 million tonnes.
For the US, the USDA has left its wheat production forecast unchanged at 41.66 million tonnes. The department’s analysts have also kept the export forecast at the same level – 21.09 million tonnes – whilst final stocks are forecast at 19.51 million tonnes.
For Ukraine, the USDA has raised its wheat harvest forecast to 26 million tonnes, up from 25.4 million tonnes in August. At the same time, the export forecast has been lowered to 12.5 million tonnes (from 13.5 million tonnes). The agency has raised its estimate for ending stocks to 6.1 million tonnes (compared with 4.8 million tonnes a month earlier), reports Latifundist.
Maize
In its September report, the USDA forecasts global maize production for the 2026/27 marketing year at 1,290.95 million tonnes, which is 7.93 million tonnes lower than the August estimate (1,298.88 million tonnes). Global exports have been revised down to 210.08 million tonnes (compared with 210.48 million tonnes in August), whilst ending stocks have been revised down to 272.1 million tonnes (a reduction of 2.56 million tonnes).
The USDA has significantly lowered its forecast for the US maize harvest from 406.75 million to 401.33 million tonnes. The export forecast remains unchanged at 83.19 million tonnes, whilst ending stocks have been reduced to 39.79 million tonnes (compared with 41.98 million tonnes).
The USDA has left its estimate for maize production in China at 307 million tonnes, imports at 5 million tonnes, and ending stocks at 165.13 million tonnes.
For Argentina, US analysts have kept the maize production forecast at 55 million tonnes and the export forecast at 38 million tonnes. In Brazil, the harvest estimate has also remained unchanged at 139 million tonnes, although the export forecast has been lowered from 44 million to 43 million tonnes.
For Ukraine, the maize harvest forecast remains unchanged at 31.8 million tonnes, with exports forecast at 22 million tonnes. Meanwhile, the estimate for ending stocks has been raised to 5.46 million tonnes (compared with 4.86 million tonnes in August).
For Russia, the USDA has lowered its maize production forecast from 17.2 million to 16.5 million tonnes, and its export forecast from 3.8 million to 3.7 million tonnes.
The forecast for South Africa remains unchanged: production at 16.5 million tonnes and exports at 2.2 million tonnes.
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