This forecast was made by Dennis Voznesensky, an economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, according to Producer.
Protein content is one of the key indicators determining how wheat is used: grain with sufficiently high quality characteristics (in particular, protein content) is used as food-grade and bread-making wheat. Wheat with lower quality indicators, on the other hand, is primarily used for feed—to feed livestock. Therefore, according to the expert, a reduction in the supply of high-protein grain could “increase the food wheat premium”—the price of milling-quality grain compared to the price of feed wheat.
The U.S. and Canada are also facing wheat quality issues
Analysts cite reduced nitrogen fertilizer application—due to its high cost—as one reason for the potential shortage of high-quality wheat. According to StoneX estimates, U.S. farmers may have reduced their use of nitrogen fertilizer by at least 5–10% this year. At the same time, low “price premiums” for high protein content are reducing farmers’ interest in growing high-protein wheat: producers are increasingly opting for higher-yielding varieties with lower protein content.
This trend is particularly noticeable in Canada. According to market participants, the price difference between wheat with 14.5%, 13.5%, and 13% protein has narrowed in recent years, making it more economically advantageous for producers to focus on yield. At the same time, the final quality of the North American harvest has not yet been determined, and the heat in the U.S. may, on the contrary, lead to a smaller spring wheat harvest with a higher protein content.
Analysts also note that millers are increasingly blending high-protein Canadian wheat with grain that has a lower protein content, particularly from Ukraine and Russia. However, if global supplies of high-protein wheat do indeed decline, the price gap between food-grade and feed-grade wheat could widen in the 2026/27 marketing year.
And what about Moldova?
Logos Press previously reported that the price of new-crop feed wheat on the Moldovan market has fallen, while the price of food wheat has so far remained at July levels. However, the price difference between feed and food wheat is traditionally small—around 0.1–0.2 lei/kg. Against the backdrop of relatively weak demand from exporters and processors at the start of the season, the “price premium” for food-grade wheat may even narrow.
At the same time, as grain market operators note, there is not much high-protein wheat in the composition of Moldova’s 2028 harvest. A biological correlation is at play: the yield is higher, but the quality is lower.
