Moldova’s SIS: Cobasna blast would not match Hiroshima scale

SIS Report: A potential explosion in Cobasna would not have the force of the Hiroshima bomb

The ammunition depot in Cobasna poses a real risk, but a potential explosion would not have the force of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima and would not cause a catastrophe on a regional scale. This is the conclusion reached by the Intelligence and Security Service (SIS) and the Military Intelligence Agency, as presented in a public technical report.

14,000 metric tons of ammunition

According to the report, there are currently approximately 14,000 metric tons of ammunition in Cobasna, of which about 2,800 metric tons constitute the actual explosive charge. The rest consists of metal casings, inert components, and dummy ammunition.

“A second key element in the analysis is how this ammunition is stored. The stockpiles at Cobasna are not concentrated in a single facility. They are distributed across 42 separate storage facilities, spread over an area of more than 1 km², at distances of approximately 80–200 meters from one another. This dispersion, together with the compartmentalization of the infrastructure and the protection provided by the area’s natural terrain, significantly reduces the possibility of a simultaneous detonation of the entire storage facility,” stated Radu Cîșleanu, director of the Military Intelligence Agency, during a joint press conference with SIS Director Alexandru Musteața.

A Manageable Risk

Thus, the SIS and the Military Intelligence Agency also reject the comparison between Cobasna and the nuclear explosion in Hiroshima. According to the report, the claim that an explosion at Cobasna could have a force equivalent to that of the Hiroshima bomb confuses the total mass of the munitions with the actual quantity of active explosive.

“This is technically impossible at Cobasna, given what is stored there and in what quantities. I want to be clear. The report states that the Cobasna depot is a risk, but a limited and controllable one. It is not an existential threat to the region, as has been repeatedly portrayed for geopolitical purposes,” Cîșleanu stated.

The report was compiled over approximately 3–4 months and included data from official OSCE sources, satellite imagery, open sources, information obtained through human sources, as well as analysis of communications and electronic signals. The data was compared with similar incidents that occurred at ammunition depots in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation.

According to the institutions, the Cobasna depot is de facto under the control of the Operational Group of Russian Forces stationed in the Transnistrian region. Chisinau continues to demand the withdrawal of Russian troops and the destruction of the ammunition through an international process.