Rapeseed: The Sharpest Price Correction
The rapeseed harvest in the Republic of Moldova is 75% complete nationwide. According to expert estimates, the average yield is 3 metric tons per hectare. As Logos Press previously reported, the Ministry of Agriculture’s estimate is slightly more conservative—2.8–3 metric tons per hectare. In total, according to the ministry, rapeseed for the 2026 harvest was planted on an area of just over 90,000 hectares in Moldova.
The pressure from a bountiful harvest, combined with low demand, has led to a decline in prices on the domestic market as well. For example, while rapeseed in the north of the country was purchased last week at 10.00 lei/kg, the current market price has fallen to 9.20–9.50 lei/kg (including VAT).
Moreover, according to market operators, not all Moldovan traders are currently purchasing local rapeseed for export. Purchases of this agricultural commodity at the port of Giurgiulești have been suspended altogether. Overall, the market is stagnating. Many market participants consider the likelihood of a further price drop to be high (in the near term; the “forecast horizon” is currently short in principle).
“Rapeseed has come under the strongest pressure due to both the recent collapse in oil prices and the resulting corrections in the global vegetable oil market,” explains Iurie Rija, an expert in agromarketing, describing the current situation. “The current state of the rapeseed market is determined by two processes occurring simultaneously. The first is a rapid reduction in the ‘risk premium’ due to the war in the Middle East. The second is the massive influx of the new rapeseed crop into the European market (in physical form, not just through futures prices). As a result, the market has shifted from a stage where prices reflected expectations and risks to a stage where they are directly influenced by the physical availability of the new crop.”
On the demand side, the situation is different. Demand is either sluggish among certain categories of buyers or is growing slowly among others. For example, a significant portion of processors, traders, and exporters in the European Union have already secured their needs for the coming months. Of the 6 million metric tons that the EU intends to import during the 2026/27 season, 20% has already been purchased. Taken together, these factors have led to a decline in rapeseed prices across Europe.
In particular, according to Matif futures contracts (a component of the European Euronext exchange) for November delivery, rapeseed prices have already fallen by nearly 5% in less than a week—down 27 euros per metric ton to 536.5 euros per metric ton. By contrast, at the end of last week, the price stood at 563.5 euros per metric ton.
At the Romanian port of Constanța (DAP delivery basis), the price of rapeseed fell by 26 euros/metric ton to 515 euros/metric ton.
Wheat: Pressure from the new harvest offsets geopolitical risk
On the domestic market of the Republic of Moldova, the price of wheat fell by 0.10 lei/kg this week. In the north of the country, it currently ranges between 2.85 and 2.90 lei/kg, while in the south (near the port of Giurgiulești) it does not exceed 3.40–3.45 lei/kg.
Last week, the price was still supported by grain export restrictions from Ukraine and Russia. Now, however, under pressure from growing supplies of new-crop grain, this factor is gradually fading away.
It is worth noting that, according to optimistic expert estimates, this year’s wheat yield in Moldova is around 5–6 metric tons per hectare (with the area under cultivation estimated by the ministry at approximately 340,000 hectares). Neighboring countries are also expected to harvest a bountiful crop, which logistics will have to manage somehow.
The price of wheat has also declined, partly due to changes in price dynamics on Matif. On this exchange, quoted prices have fallen by more than 6% since last week—that is, by 15 euros per metric ton—to 229.3 euros per metric ton for futures contracts. At the Port of Constanța, the current price is around 211 (on DAP terms).
Barley: First Signs of a Decline
The domestic price of barley in Moldova remains stable this week at 3.20 lei/kg (in the Giurgiulești area). However, the first signs of a decline are already visible in Constanța: at the end of last week, the price fell by 5 euros/metric ton to 189 euros/metric ton (July 28). This is still a modest downward adjustment—just 2.6%. But it is already a harbinger of a moderately negative trend.
What’s next?
“This year’s harvest of first-group crops in the Republic of Moldova is generally bountiful. The high prices during the second and third weeks of July were largely a result of geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea and the Middle East. Had it not been for these tensions, purchase prices for the new harvest would most likely have been lower from the very beginning. The market is now moving toward a downward correction: not necessarily a price collapse, but a decline in price levels,” concludes Iurie Rija.
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