News about inflation

China’s consumer price growth increased to the highest level in more than three years. Deflation in the industrial market slowed again after a rebound in energy markets and a boom in consumer spending during the Lunar New Year holiday.

In February, the annual inflation rate surpassed last month’s figures, amounting to 5.1%, which is higher than in January. In January, annual inflation in Moldova decreased to 4.8% (from 6.8% in December 2025), which was the lowest level over the last 1.5 years.

The minimum guaranteed monthly income for adults and children will be indexed from April 1. The government on Wednesday will consider a draft decree to this effect, which was developed taking into account the inflation rate for the previous year.

Since the EUR became the base currency of the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) for determining the exchange rate of the MDL and conducting currency interventions (January 2, 2025), the country’s national currency has depreciated by 5.58%.

Due to rising energy prices, the European currency is already suffering. The euro has fallen 2% against the dollar. The fall could be more significant if the war in Iran lasts longer than the “four weeks” that Trump spoke of.

In February 2026, food prices rose on the world market. The FAO Food Price Index (FPI) averaged 125.3 points last month, up 1.1 points (0.9%) from January.

China imposes temporary restrictions on exports of diesel fuel and gasoline to meet domestic needs amid regional instability. Countries in the region are trying to find alternative sources, in particular, increasing interest in Kazakh oil.

Against the background of military actions in Iran, fuel prices are rising in Germany. The cost of diesel in the country averages 2.054 euros per liter. Gasoline of Super E10 grade rose to an average of 1.991 euros at the morning peak, Logos Press reports citing DW.

In Moldova, the minimum affordable package of services (Internet + minutes) costs less than $10, making the country the fourth most affordable mobile plan in the region. In terms of price/quality ratio (data value index, cost of 1 Mbps), the country ranks ninth, ahead of Denmark and many Western European countries.

European financial markets are under strain as the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran renews fears that an energy shock could exacerbate inflation. The region is almost entirely dependent on oil and gas imports. The price of Brent crude has risen nearly 10% since Friday, while natural gas prices in Europe have jumped 50%.

Exchange prices for gas in Europe on Monday afternoon sharply accelerated growth – up to 32%, exceeding $515 per thousand cubic meters. The main reason – the world’s largest gas supplier, Qatar’s state-owned energy company QatarEnergy announced that it would stop producing liquefied natural gas (LNG) at all of its facilities due to drone attacks on its facilities.

In the final report on the country following the expert mission, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirmed the NBM’s commitment to the principles of credibility and institutional transparency. The experts recognized the methods used as being in line with the modern international practice, allowing the domestic central bank to conduct an efficient monetary policy and contribute to the stability of the country’s financial system.

In the short term, the growth of exchange quotations for wheat will continue. Grain prices are always tightly linked to oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate. Attacks on Iran have already been converted by rising oil prices and strengthening of the dollar. In this nexus, a rise in the prices of fast traded agri-food commodities is inevitable.

According to the forecast of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the increase in food prices in Moldova in 2026 will amount to 4.9%, which puts our country on the 43rd place in the world on this indicator among 160 states.

Interaction with the IMF will be a key condition for the country’s support in the EU accession process. The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made such an appeal to the Moldovan authorities at a meeting on February 27.

Countries in Central and South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa will take the brunt of food inflation this year, according to Logos Press.

Despite last year’s relatively high crop of mass-market vegetables, some of them will run out of stock in storage within the next two weeks. Not because demand will increase, but because quality will degrade rapidly, Logos Press reports.

The European Central Bank (ECB) expects food inflation, crucial to consumers’ perception of price stability, to stabilize just above its 2% target by the end of this year, according to Logos Press.

The volume of cash receipts at banks’ cash desks in January exceeded their disbursements by 96 million lei, down 6.8% (by 951 million lei) compared to the same month of the previous year, Logos Press reported.

The beginning of 2026 is marked by a series of decisions and processes that will largely set the financial trajectory of Moldova for the coming year. The focus is on the National Bank’s policy, inflation dynamics, the state of foreign exchange reserves and the Moldovan leu exchange rate.