The closure of the Strait of Hormuz had a less dramatic impact than expected, thanks to the release of oil and gas reserves, a decline in demand, and the increased use of renewable energy sources.
Countries quickly tapped into their accumulated oil and gas reserves and established alternative supply routes. At the same time, energy production and exports from regions outside the Persian Gulf increased.
The implementation of demand-reduction and energy-conservation programs bore fruit. Renewable energy capacity expanded significantly. In a number of regions, there was a temporary and partial return to coal-fired power generation.
Main Causes for Concern
Despite the optimism, the risks to global GDP remain skewed toward negative scenarios. The process of bringing inflation down has effectively stalled. And most countries are facing fiscal pressures and tight monetary policies from central banks.
The IMF is seriously concerned about the deterioration of public finances, rising public debt, and budget deficits in many countries.
“We are seeing a ‘tug-of-war’ between the negative consequences of the energy crisis and the investment boom fueled by artificial intelligence (AI),” said IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva ahead of the G20 finance ministers’ meeting in North Carolina, according to Spiegel.
The technology sector is a powerful driver: in the U.S., it is sustaining high consumer spending and corporate earnings, while in other countries (such as Thailand), it is fueling a massive construction boom for data centers.
The situation is worse when it comes to central banks tightening monetary policy. The risk of another spike in oil prices could force regulators to keep interest rates high for longer, which would slow economic activity. This is particularly true for countries hardest hit by the energy crisis and those that are entirely dependent on energy imports.
In July, the IMF already revised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026, lowering it to 3%. The Fund plans to present updated and more detailed macroeconomic assessments in mid-October in Bangkok.
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