Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Photo: AP
China is not involved in the current war in the Persian Gulf, but several leading American experts believe that it is the one emerging as the winner. Chinese analysts are traditionally more cautious in their assessments (more on this below), according to the BBC.
Americans, meanwhile, point out that Donald Trump started the war without warning, triggered a full-scale energy crisis, and cast doubt on the U.S.’s willingness and ability to defend its allies.
“Both the U.S.’s friends and rivals agree that the country increasingly resembles a rogue state that threatens global stability and order, and is increasingly becoming the object of ridicule,” says American political scientist and philosopher Francis Fukuyama, one of the West’s leading experts on democracy, governance, and the world order.
“Under Trump, America is so consistently undermining itself that China doesn’t really need to do anything,” he writes.
The attack on Iran and Trump’s trade wars have turned the U.S. into an unpredictable, destructive force and automatically made communist China—the world’s second-largest economic and military power—an anchor of stability and sensible policy.
“From Beijing’s perspective, Washington is, step by step, undermining the foundation of its own power, falling out with its allies, and turning the whole world against itself,” notes Julian Gewirtz, a former China adviser on the National Security Council and at the U.S. State Department under Joe Biden.
“As a result, many countries are beginning to realize that it is easier and more reliable to negotiate with China than with the United States, which is increasingly acting solely in its own interests,” writes Gewirtz, now a fellow at Columbia University.
Renowned American economist and Nobel laureate Paul Krugman echoes this sentiment.
“China did not participate directly in the Third Gulf War,” he writes. “However, it clearly makes no secret of its satisfaction at our humiliation. Both the course of the war and the role China played have significantly shifted the global balance of power in its favor.”
“The Chinese are serious people, and we are not”
“Yes, China is a corrupt autocracy; it does not respect human rights and does not share democratic values,” Krugman notes. — “But people around the world have come to the conclusion that the Chinese are serious people, and we are not.”
“That is why America lost this war, and China won it,” he believes.
The U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran has caused military and economic damage to America’s allies in the Persian Gulf and around the world. China, on the other hand, has acted as a stabilizing force.
Experts from the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East Program note that China’s main advantage lies in the fact that it has no obvious adversaries in the region. “Unlike the U.S., Beijing maintains friendly relations with everyone, including Washington’s key ally, Israel,” they write.
“The gap in diplomatic influence between the U.S. and China is narrowing. China continues to build up its ‘soft power,’ while the U.S. is undermining its own position, systematically resorting to armed conflict, and assigning an increasingly minor role to diplomacy in its Middle East policy,” they argue.
China has also served as an economic stabilizer. For countries that suffered from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, it provided relief by cutting oil imports nearly in half thanks to its massive reserves, thereby mitigating the energy crisis and preventing oil prices from rising to $200 per barrel, as economists had predicted before China’s intervention.
How the U.S. Is Losing Ground to China
“This is a new dimension in world politics. In the past, when problems arose in the oil market, the U.S. president would first call Riyadh and ask Saudi Arabia to increase oil exports,” said Javier Blas, Bloomberg’s chief oil expert.
“Now, however, it’s possible that they’ll first call Beijing and ask it to cut imports,” he said. “This is an extremely intriguing shift. It will be very interesting to see what political consequences it will have for the United States.”
According to Blas, the Chinese flexed their oil muscle for two reasons. China does not need a global crisis because its economy is entirely dependent on exports, and a crisis would leave buyers of Chinese goods without money.
The second reason is somewhat conspiratorial, but as a theory, it has merit.
China and the U.S. are in constant dialogue, and Blas does not rule out that the issue of stabilizing global oil prices was part of behind-the-scenes agreements. What exactly? “One can only speculate,” says Blas. But indirect signs point to a softening of Washington’s stance on the Taiwan issue, which is crucial for China.
In May, the White House put a major military aid package to Taiwan—worth approximately $14 billion—on hold; officially, this was explained by the need to conserve resources for a war in Iran. And in August, Trump ordered a reduction in the scale of military exercises with South Korea aimed at deterring North Korea, and stated that he has a very good relationship with Kim Jong-un.
“Trump’s decision is not just an attack on an ally and a gift to Kim Jong-un. Chinese authorities have long expressed dissatisfaction with these exercises, and have been particularly vocal about it recently,” Julian Gewirtz observes. “When I worked at the U.S. State Department, Chinese officials regularly raised this issue during bilateral talks.”
“Therefore, scaling back the exercises is exactly the outcome China has been seeking for many years,” he wrote.
Such concessions by Trump could lead to a new war, warns Francis Fukuyama.
“Trump has said that China will not attack Taiwan as long as he is U.S. president. In this, he may be right: Xi Jinping does not want to interfere with the United States’ decline,” he writes. “But if America at some point elects a president willing to change course, that could force Xi to act quickly and decisively.”
“We are no longer trusted; we are no longer feared”
For now, however, China is taking advantage of Trump’s mistakes and exploiting his vanity, Fukuyama argues.
“Trump reserves his anger and fury for domestic opponents, not for foreign dictators,” Fukuyama writes, recalling Trump’s May visit with Xi.
“The atmosphere of the meeting showed just how far Trump had fallen in the eyes of the Chinese. Worst of all was the constant fawning: Trump called Xi a ‘great leader’ and a ‘true friend,’ and praised China over and over again. Based on his past dealings with autocrats, Trump likely expected reciprocity. Xi, however, limited himself to saying that the U.S. and China ‘should be partners, not rivals.’”
It is not only the Chinese who are losing respect for American power under Trump. As sociologists at the American Pew Research Center found, this year, for the first time, the world began to view China more favorably than the U.S., and the Chinese leader more favorably than the American president.
“Even many of our long-standing allies—countries that helped us win World War II and then the Cold War—now view China more favorably than the United States,” — commented Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman on the survey results.
Krugman, a longtime critic of Trump, believes the problem lies in the erosion of the foundations of American hegemony. He writes that Trump’s reforms and personnel decisions are undermining leadership in science and technology, military superiority, “soft power,” financial power, and the role of the dollar as the world’s primary reserve and settlement currency—and, most importantly, are destroying the alliances that have allowed America to be the world’s leading power.
“The U.S. is cutting funding for leading universities and creating conditions under which it becomes either extremely unattractive or simply impossible for foreign scientists to work in America. At the same time, the U.S. is dismantling the instruments of its influence around the world, from USAID to ‘Voice of America,’”—he writes.
“From China’s perspective, the U.S. is effectively disarming itself voluntarily.”
The war in Iran is yet another confirmation of this, Krugman believes.
“Trump, without consulting anyone in particular, unleashed a war that not only brought death and destruction but also cut off the world from a significant portion of its oil and gas supplies. And as soon as the war began, America demonstrated that it was incapable of imposing its will on Iran, lifting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, or protecting its allies in the region,” Krugman writes.
“So now the world no longer trusts us, and it no longer fears us.”
A View from China
The Chinese are pleased, but they are in no hurry to celebrate victory. Things could still turn out against them, believes one of China’s leading experts on the Middle East, Professor Wang Jin of Northwest University in Xi’an, China.
“The situation should not be reduced to the simple premise that America has lost and China has won,” he wrote in an article for the influential regional publication *The Diplomat*. “On the contrary, as the region enters a new phase of transformation, China may face new challenges, while new strategic opportunities are opening up for the U.S.”
Wealthy Middle Eastern countries remain dependent on American military technology, and their need for weapons has only increased in light of Iranian missile and drone attacks. Neither the UAE nor Bahrain will find a replacement for the U.S. as a military ally, notes Wang Jin.
“Neither Russia, nor China, nor Pakistan is currently capable of filling the strategic vacuum in the event of a significant reduction in U.S. military cooperation. The Arab states of the Persian Gulf are seeking to diversify, but no third power today is capable of replacing the U.S. as the leading military force in the Middle East,” he writes.
Furthermore, as the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, the U.S. has strengthened its position as a leading energy power due to the shortage of raw materials caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, China, as the largest importer, has lost significant supplies from the Gulf, including from Iran, and in the future, the U.S. has the potential to further undermine China’s energy security.
“If Iran and the U.S. agree to ease sanctions against Tehran, significant Western investment could flow into the Iranian market. As a result, China’s long-standing economic advantages in Iran could weaken,” Wang Jin explains, describing one of the potential problems.
Another challenge is diplomatic. China will have to navigate between the region’s rival nations. Supporting Iran will complicate relations with those it is bombing, primarily the UAE. And criticism of or pressure on Iran will create discord in Sino-Iranian relations.
“Therefore, striking a balance between ensuring energy security, safeguarding freedom of navigation, and maintaining relations with both Iran and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf will likely become an increasingly complex diplomatic challenge for China,” the Chinese expert believes.
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