This is evidenced by data from the ICE. The rise in sugar prices is driven by several factors. According to Trading Economics, risks to production are being exacerbated by the strongest El Niño event in decades. Analysts are revising their forecasts upward for the global sugar deficit in the 2026/27 season amid a reduction in the acreage planted with sugarcane and sugar beets.
India, the European Union, and Thailand are among the regions most vulnerable to adverse weather conditions. At the same time, high oil prices may encourage major producers, such as Brazil, to divert more sugarcane to ethanol production rather than sugar. In late July, Brazil raised the mandatory ethanol blend level in fuel. This could lead to a further reduction in sugar supply on the global market.
Meanwhile, India—the world’s largest sugar consumer—is considering reducing import duties on sugar by the end of October to boost domestic stocks and curb record-high price increases. This decision could also put additional pressure on global supply.
