This indicator combines, with equal weighting, six metrics published by the NBS and the NBM: industrial production, retail sales, exports, M3 money supply, the interest rate on non-performing loans, and the spread between the yield on 364-day government securities and the NBM’s base rate.
The methodology is consistent with established practices of the OECD, the Conference Board, the European Commission, and the Bank of Italy, providing an assessment of the state of the economy approximately 1–2 quarters earlier than official GDP statistics.
“The second quarter of 2026 marked a return to economic growth after two quarters of stagnation, and June showed the strongest monthly signal since September 2025 (+0.23 standard deviations above the historical average). The average value for the second quarter rose to +0.16σ, which is nearly three times the level of the first quarter,” Expert-Grup told Logos Press.
The growth was driven by industrial production (+10.6% year-over-year), retail sales (+10.2% in real terms), exports (+18.7%), and real money supply (+6.7%). Pressure from the financial sector—specifically, the level of non-performing loans and the risk premium in the VMS market—remains a concern but has eased in intensity.
Although official data on second-quarter GDP growth will be released in mid-September, the Expert-Grup indicator forecasts a noticeable acceleration in growth compared to the modest pace of the first quarter (+0.4%).
For the second quarter and for the full year, the indicator forecasts moderate GDP growth of approximately 3%.
Just a few days ago, Moldova’s Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization lowered the country’s GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.8% (previously expected to be 2.2%). The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its forecast for Moldova’s GDP growth in 2026 from 2.3% to 1.9%. The World Bank forecasts Moldova’s GDP growth in 2026 at 1.9%. This figure has also been revised downward (previously expected to be 2.7%) amid external economic shocks, rising inflation, and regional instability.
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