China Could Capture 37% of Global Auto Market by 2030

China will account for almost 40 per cent of the global car market

UBS analysts forecast that Chinese car manufacturers could increase their share of the global car market to 37 per cent by 2030, up from 22 per cent in the first half of 2026. Growing consumer confidence in electric vehicles is fuelling this expansion beyond China’s borders.

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In Europe, the bank’s analysts estimate that Chinese brands could capture 20 per cent of the market by 2030, up from the previous forecast of 18 per cent. Their current share stands at around 8 per cent, but growth rates have exceeded analysts’ expectations, notes Investing.

A survey by the UBS Evidence Lab of 12,000 consumers showed that 36 per cent of Europeans are willing to consider buying a Chinese-branded electric vehicle. Interest in Chinese manufacturers in Europe already exceeds the combined interest in Japanese and South Korean brands.

Price remains the main advantage of Chinese cars. 66 per cent of potential buyers of Chinese electric cars worldwide cited value for money as an important factor. Technology, including digital features and autonomous driving systems, came in second place, with 61 per cent of respondents highlighting this.

Since 2019, Chinese car manufacturers have increased their market share by 9–12 percentage points in Europe, Latin America, certain Asian countries, the Middle East and Africa. Exports are becoming particularly important for them against a backdrop of weak domestic demand in China.

Europe remains one of the main areas for expansion, but growth there may slow. Among the potential obstacles, UBS cites new tariffs on plug-in hybrids and requirements for localised production.

Additional challenges for Chinese brands include low residual values of vehicles, limited after-sales service networks and difficulties in entering the corporate market.

In UBS’s base-case scenario, the leading Chinese players overseas will be BYD, Geely, Chery, SAIC, Leapmotor and Xiaomi. In the optimistic scenario, their combined share could reach 45 per cent of the global market and 30 per cent of the European market by 2030. In the pessimistic scenario, the figures will be 33 per cent and 15 per cent respectively.

Chinese expansion will exert the greatest pressure on mass-market car brands in Europe and Asia. American manufacturers are in a more secure position: trade barriers effectively restrict the access of Chinese cars to the US market. According to UBS, premium brands will also prove more resilient than the mass market segment.

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