One reason for the relatively weak impact was the high soil moisture reserves with which many tropical and subtropical regions entered the current ENSO phase following the previous La Niña. Frequent and heavy rainfall throughout 2025 and into early 2026 created a certain “safety margin” for winter crops in the Northern Hemisphere.
In Europe, experts do not directly link the current heat and drought to El Niño. The moisture deficit began to develop as early as the summer of 2025, whereas previous strong El Niño episodes in the summer often, on the contrary, brought more precipitation to France, Spain, and parts of the United Kingdom. Eastern Europe is currently becoming drier, while in September, the western part of the continent is expected to see a shift toward wetter weather, according to Ukragroconsult.
In Asia, the negative impact is also significantly weaker so far than during the El Niño events of 1982, 1997, and 2015. The most significant moisture deficit is observed in Indonesia; however, crop conditions in South and Southeast Asia remain generally better than during previous severe El Niño cycles. India is experiencing a relatively favorable monsoon season, although the cumulative precipitation deficit since June 1 stands at about 13%.
A delayed effect?
The main risks to the agricultural sector may materialize in the fall and winter. The Indian monsoon typically begins to weaken in the second half of September, and some areas of India and Pakistan may enter the dry season with insufficient soil moisture and irrigation water reserves. Drought risks also persist for Indonesia and northeastern and central-eastern Australia. Even after El Niño peaks, its impact on weather conditions may continue for the next few months.
Experts are also considering the hypothesis that El Niño’s impact may be changing due to overall warming of the ocean and atmosphere. A warmer global ocean potentially reduces the temperature contrast in the tropical Pacific, while increased water vapor in the atmosphere contributes to more intense precipitation and may slow the drying of soils. However, this hypothesis has not yet been sufficiently substantiated by science, so the coming months will be critical for assessing the actual impact of the current El Niño on global agriculture.
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