Photo: Dan Kitwood / Getty Images
Against the backdrop of high prices on the European market and competition for LNG supplies, Europe is entering the heating season with heightened risks of price volatility, according to The Guardian. Unless gas injection rates accelerate significantly, stocks could be about 20% below the five-year average by the start of the heating season. In that case, Europe will enter the winter with its lowest stockpiles since 2013, the publication notes.
Gas market analyst Greg Molnar warns that low storage levels increase the likelihood of sharp price fluctuations during the winter. Prolonged periods of cold weather or low wind power generation could be an additional risk factor, as they would increase gas consumption.
Prices could exceed €100 per MWh
One of the main challenges is not only the volume of gas in storage facilities but also the cost of replenishing reserves. The European market has come under pressure due to supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf region and increased competition for liquefied natural gas from Asian buyers.
European gas prices remained relatively stable this summer amid expectations that supplies through the Strait of Hormuz would resume. However, uncertainty persists.
“As a result, the European natural gas market experienced some winter panic last week,” The Guardian quotes Bjarne Schildrop, chief commodities analyst at the Scandinavian banking group SEB, as saying.
As reported by Logos Press, the benchmark gas price in Europe has risen above €68 per MWh in recent weeks. This is more than double the level seen at the beginning of the year. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, if gas supplies from the Middle East do not resume, the European price could exceed €100 per MWh in order to attract the necessary volumes of LNG.
However, analysts do not expect a physical gas shortage in Europe this winter. The main risk lies elsewhere: with insufficient reserves and intense competition for LNG, the market will have to pay more for additional volumes.
The situation is particularly tense in Western Europe. According to data cited by The Guardian, Germany’s gas storage facilities are about half full, while those in Belgium and the Netherlands are approximately 51% and 45% full, respectively. These countries have direct gas connections to the British market.
In recent days, the situation in Germany has begun to improve: according to Reuters, its gas storage facilities were 51.64% full, and the rate of injection has increased thanks to improved market conditions and reduced competition from Asian LNG buyers. However, German authorities acknowledge that reaching the target storage level remains a challenging task.
Europe’s problemscould affectMoldova
For Moldova, the situation in Europe is of direct importance, since the country purchases gas on the European market and does not have its own underground storage facilities. Strategic reserves were previously stored in Ukraine and Romania. But storing gas in Ukraine now carries significant risks, and Romania has no available capacity in its underground storage facilities for Moldova—all storage capacity is needed to build up its own reserves. Logos Press recently reported on this, citing a statement by Alexandru Ursu, director of the National Energy Regulatory Authority (NARE).
Consequently, in June 2026, the Moldovan authorities increased the mandatory natural gas reserve volume for the 2026–2027 season by nearly 6.5 million cubic meters—from 50 million to 56.3 million cubic meters. According to the Ministry of Energy, this volume must be built up by Energocom by October 1. The reserve corresponds to approximately 10 days of winter consumption.
This means that rising European prices are directly affecting the cost of gas purchases for Moldova. According to Energocom, on August 25, the price of gas on the European market was €68.19 per MWh, compared to €61.42 per MWh on August 14. Meanwhile, in July, Energocom purchased gas for current consumption at an average price of €50.12 per MWh.
As reported by Logos Press, Energocom has contracted 76% of Moldova’s required gas volumes through September 30, 2027. This will provide partial protection against gas shortages during the winter and ensure a certain level of supply security.
However, the fuel price will be indexed at the time of delivery or at the end of the preceding month. Therefore, in the event of a sharp increase in prices on the European gas market, this will also affect consumers in Moldova. If the import price rises significantly, residential rates will once again have to be revised upward.
Unfortunately, analysts do not foresee any options for lowering gas prices in Europe. So far, there are no visible prerequisites for this.
Therefore, the main risk for Moldova in this situation is not so much a physical shortage of gas as the cost of additional purchases and potential price volatility during winter consumption peaks.
Follow our updates
