A positive result does not in itself oblige Iceland to join the EU, but it does reopen accession negotiations, and any potential membership agreement will be put to a separate referendum.
Iceland submitted its application for EU membership in 2009, following the financial crisis. However, in 2013, a Eurosceptic government came to power, which froze accession negotiations, and in 2015 officially withdrew the country’s candidacy.
Then, in the 2024 elections, a coalition advocating for EU accession won—one that included in its platform a promise to hold a referendum on returning to that course—and it is precisely this vote that is taking place today.
With a population of just under 400,000, Iceland would become the EU’s smallest member state—a title currently held by Malta. But the stakes in this vote are much higher than the country’s size would suggest.
Ten years after the British Brexit referendum, the European project has a chance to regain its momentum for expansion and prove that it remains attractive to wealthier northern countries, with non-EU member Norway watching the developments closely.
The outcome of the referendum is unpredictable
Early voting has been unusually active: according to Icelandic media reports, by Wednesday more than 40,000 people—nearly 15% of voters—had already cast their ballots.
Opinion polls have evened out, and the outcome of the referendum remains unpredictable. The “Yes” camp’s once-confident lead has virtually vanished: according to the latest poll conducted by the research firm Maskína on August 21–25, 51.3% support resuming negotiations, while 48.7% intend to vote “No.”
In recent days, the balance of power may have shifted even further. A Gallup poll published on Thursday showed a slight lead for “No” supporters, although the margin falls within the margin of error.
The referendum result will be advisory rather than legally binding; however, a convincing “Yes” victory will inevitably increase pressure on Reykjavík, pushing the authorities to take further steps.
Preliminary results are expected early Sunday morning.
