Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by 1.7% in January-March 2026 in unadjusted terms and by 1.5% in seasonally adjusted terms compared to the same quarter of 2025, business-review.eu reported.
Compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, GDP fell 0.2% in the first quarter of 2026.
“The seasonally adjusted data were recalculated by recalculating to take into account the gross domestic product estimate for the first quarter of 2026, with volume indices revised from the second preliminary version of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2025 published in press release No. 87 of April 9, 2026,” INS said in a statement.
As a result, the first quarter 2025 figures compared to the fourth quarter 2024 were revised from 99.5% to 99.8%; the second quarter 2025 figures compared to the first quarter 2025 were revised from 101.0% to 100.7%; the third quarter 2025 figures compared to the second quarter 2025 were revised from 99.9% to 100.0%; and the fourth quarter 2025 figures compared to the third quarter 2025 were revised from 98.2% to 98.0%.
According to data provided by INS in April, Romania’s economy grew by 0.7% in real terms last year compared to 2024, but gross domestic product in the last quarter of 2025 was 1.8% lower than in the previous quarter.
Inflation is approaching 11%
The weak GDP performance comes amid accelerating inflation. According to the National Institute of Statistics, Romania’s annual inflation rate rose to 10.7% in April 2026, up from 9.87% in March and 9.3% in February.
The latest increase was mainly due to higher prices for services rather than food or fuel. Rents rose sharply by 33% over the month and airfares increased by 27%, a seasonal phenomenon atypical during the Easter holiday period. Compared to March, food prices rose by 0.5% and non-food prices rose by 0.4%. Gasoline prices decreased by 1.2%, while diesel fuel prices increased by 2.3%.
In April, the highest annual price increase was recorded in the services sector – by 13.04%, followed by non-food products (up 12.02%) and food (up 7.39%).
Among food products, the highest annual price increase was recorded for coffee (21.76%), eggs (14.78%), beef (12.24%), fresh fruit (11.77%) and cow’s milk (10.97%). In the non-food segment, electricity prices rose by 54.18%, diesel by 32.68%, gasoline by 22.42% and heating by 10.7%. In services, rents rose 43.78% year-on-year, while double-digit growth was also seen in hygiene and cosmetic services, water, sewerage and sanitation, auto repair services and medical services.
Weak growth forecasts
The National Strategy and Forecasting Commission in its fall forecast estimated economic growth of 1% in 2026, slightly lower than the 1.2% estimate included in last summer’s forecast.
The European Commission estimated Romania’s GDP growth at 1.1% in 2026, while the World Bank significantly revised its forecast for the Romanian economy from 1.3% in January to 0.5%. The International Monetary Fund also lowered its estimate for Romania’s economic growth this year to 0.7% from 1.4% projected in October, according to its latest World Economic Outlook report.
