Maia Sandu and Nicușor Dan
Maya Sandu, President of the Republic of Moldova, stated that she will vote “yes” in the referendum on unification with Romania. Deputy Prime Minister Eugen Osmocescu called this option “Plan B.” Romanian President Nicușor Dan supports unification, as do other Romanian politicians. The majority of Moldova’s residents speak Romanian, and a significant portion of the country’s current territory was part of Romania from 1918 to 1940, writes the British publication *The Economist*, which begins its article with the question, “Could Moldova disappear?”
France Stands in the Way of EU Accession
There is a possibility that the Republic of Moldova will meet the conditions for accession to the European Union by 2029. At the same time, opposition from French Euroskeptics could slow down this process. The French constitution requires a referendum or approval by a three-fifths majority of members in both houses of parliament before the country can accept new member states into the EU.
Under these circumstances, Moldova’s chances seem slim. Moreover, by 2029, Marine Le Pen—a far-right nationalist politician who opposes EU expansion—could become president. This scenario makes the option of joining through a merger with a neighboring state, following the East German model, more attractive.
Moldovans are not very keen on joining Romania
In Romania, according to polls, support for unification stands at about 70%, while in Moldova it is around 40%. Iulian Groza, director of the Institute for European Policy and Reforms, a think tank, says that support for this idea in Moldova has doubled over the past decade.
Moldova’s population is about 2.9 million, and it is estimated that about 850,000 of them, including citizens living abroad, hold Romanian citizenship. For many of them, this choice is pragmatic, as Romanian citizenship allows them to work in the European Union.
However, this same pragmatism may prompt some Moldovans to agree to give up their independence in exchange for EU and NATO membership through Romania. Meanwhile, many of them participate in Romanian elections and contributed to the election of Nicușor Dan. According to Rufin Zamfir, a Romanian communications expert, unification with Romania is not currently a short-term priority.
He believes that statements by Moldovan leaders “should be interpreted as an indirect message to European partners.” He says that if the prospect of EU accession is postponed or weakened, “confidence in Plan B will grow… [and] become a political variable that Brussels will not be able to ignore.”
Romania Does Not Have the Money for Unification
Romania does not have the financial resources to support a reunification on the scale of West Germany. Moldova is a poor country and does not control Transnistria, a pro-Russian separatist territory. Furthermore, the 1994 agreement with the Gagauz, a pro-Russian minority, grants them the right to independence in the event of a union between Moldova and Romania.
However, these obstacles may prove insurmountable. Under current conditions, Russia has limited capacity to support Transnistria or Gagauzia. Furthermore, as a result of the trade agreement between Moldova and the EU, about 70% of Transnistria’s exports go to Europe.
Approximately 100,000 residents of Gagauzia live in four separate enclaves. Potential independence within a territory surrounded by European Union borders may not prove to be a particularly attractive prospect.
Greater Romania and Greater Albania
“Moldova is not the only candidate for disappearance. A significant majority in Albania and Kosovo, where the population is predominantly ethnic Albanian, supports the unification of the two countries. Albin Kurti, Kosovo’s interim prime minister, supports the merger, but Edi Rama, Albania’s prime minister, does not.
According to Edi Rama, the situation will be resolved after both countries join the European Union. Relations between the two leaders are marked by hostility, and their disagreements have begun to sow division among the population. Although such a scenario seems unlikely, it cannot be ruled out that in ten years the Republic of Moldova will be replaced by Greater Romania as a means of achieving EU membership. However, the idea of Greater Albania seems more difficult to imagine.”
