It is clear that the price spikes were triggered by increased risks to grain shipments from the Black Sea region. Commenting on this “expected anomaly” in the global grain market, some analysts have decided to revise their forecasts for a global food crisis to the short term.
The sharp rise in wheat prices was driven by limited grain export capacity from the Black Sea region—from both Ukrainian and Russian ports. To compound the problems at the ports of Greater Odessa, full-scale grain exports from the port of Novorossiysk have been suspended, and infrastructure restoration could take anywhere from one to several months.
Corn prices in Chicago rose to a three-year high. September futures rose 2.7% to $202.36/metric ton, supported by a spike in wheat prices and traders’ concerns regarding the supply of the U.S. harvest. At the same time, corn imports into the EU from the start of the 2026/27 season through August 23 reached 2.57 million metric tons, up 44% from a year earlier. The largest suppliers were sellers from Ukraine and the U.S.
Soybeans also hit new highs: November futures rose 2.28% to $465.17 per metric ton. China’s new purchases of this commodity provided additional support. The USDA reported the sale of 333,000 metric tons of new-crop U.S. soybeans for delivery in the 2026/27 season. The market also expects large weekly export sales of the new crop in the range of 1.5–3 million metric tons.
Europe – On the Rise
The rally in Chicago also supported the European market. On the Paris MATIF exchange (part of the Euronext platform), September wheat futures rose 3.83% to €236/metric ton, while November corn delivery contracts rose to €262.5/metric ton.
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