During the exercises, a scenario was analysed in which Russia attacks the Republic of Moldova in 2028, whilst a drone strikes a fuel depot in Romania, a NATO member state, resulting in civilian casualties, reports replicaonline.ro.
Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, commenting on the exercises, described America’s response as ‘indecisive’.
According to Ignatius, the scenario assumed that the war in Ukraine would continue until 2028 and reach a bloody stalemate, whilst Moscow would attempt to further divide Europe by attacking Moldova.
During the simulation, one of the Russian drones struck Romanian territory, resulting in civilian casualties. Participants were asked to decide how the United States should respond.
According to the author, the exercise resulted in a ‘timid’ American response, driven by the belief that American public opinion would not support a decisive military response. Ignatius argues that such an outcome indirectly implies that the collective defence commitment enshrined in Article 5 of the NATO Treaty risks losing its credibility.
‘The response in this simulation – and I fear the same will happen in reality – was indecisive, which is an indirect signal that the collective security commitment under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty is virtually ineffective. During the simulation, members of Congress agreed that American public opinion would not support a decisive response. And without US leadership, Europe will be fragmented and disorganised,” writes the journalist.
The exercises were organised with the support of Cornell University’s Brooks Institute and the Rockefeller Foundation. The author clarifies that he attended the simulation on condition that the identities of the participants remained confidential.
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