According to Ekonomim, the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure are maintaining constant contact with both Moscow and Kyiv. Negotiations are proceeding intensively, but the concept and timeline for establishing the new mechanism remain unknown. According to the publication, the outcome of the negotiations should be determined in the coming weeks.
However, it is unclear whether these statements reflect hopes or actual progress in the negotiation process. The only thing that is clear is that Turkey is attempting to play the same mediating role it played during the Black Sea Grain Initiative in 2022.
The blockade of trade routes in the Azov and Black Seas has effectively halted a significant portion of foreign grain shipments from Ukraine and Russia. According to estimates by international agricultural organizations and analysts, Russia has accumulated about 60 million metric tons of grain due to a record harvest and export restrictions, while in Ukraine, about 30–35 million metric tons of grains and oilseeds are awaiting shipment in warehouses and temporary storage facilities. The total volume of produce that cannot reach the global market is approaching 100 million metric tons, according to Ukragroconsult.
The blockage of agricultural commodity shipments in the Black Sea region has already affected global prices. Kazim Taiji, chairman of the Istanbul Association of Exporters of Grains, Legumes, Oilseeds, and Related Products, stated that following the de facto halt in shipments from Ukraine and Russia, grain prices have already risen by 4–4.5%. He estimates that if the problem is not resolved within two months, price increases could exceed 10%.
A Particular Concern for Turkey
A particular risk for Turkey is ensuring a steady supply of raw materials for its own processing industry. The country is one of the largest grain buyers in the region; it processes the grain and exports finished products to global markets. Last year, such exports brought Turkey $13 billion. In the event of a prolonged blockade of the grain corridor, the country could suffer significant losses in this sector.
However, as Logos Press previously reported, Turkish authorities are aware of these risks and are working to mitigate them. In particular, Turkey is lowering import duties on sunflower seeds earlier than usual—effective October 1, 2026.
