Monetary policy

Since 2024, the dollar has partially lost its role as a safe haven asset, but ING notes there has been no global decline in demand for the U.S. currency, according to Logos Press.

The volume of cash receipts at banks’ cash desks in January exceeded their disbursements by 96 million lei, down 6.8% (by 951 million lei) compared to the same month of the previous year, Logos Press reported.

The government does not support the deputies’ proposal to adjust cash limits, but the Finance Ministry has already started analyzing the application of the Cash Settlement Law and is drafting amendments to make it more efficient, Logos Press reported.

In February 2026, citizens invested 41.15 million lei through eVMS.md, failing to support January’s interest in state securities, Logos Press reported.

The beginning of 2026 is marked by a series of decisions and processes that will largely set the financial trajectory of Moldova for the coming year. The focus is on the National Bank’s policy, inflation dynamics, the state of foreign exchange reserves and the Moldovan leu exchange rate.

The volume of new loans granted to individuals in Moldova in January 2026 amounted to 1.865 billion lei (or 35.5% of the total crediting volume of 5.254 billion lei). This figure is 17.5% lower compared to December 2025, Logos Press reported.

The foreign currency cash market in January saw a decline in activity characteristic of the beginning of the year, accompanied by a reduction in buy-sell transactions and an increase in savings sentiment, according to Logos Press.

When the market is healthy, it requires no explanation. It functions on its own: apartments are sold, banks lend, developers build, and buyers buy. The state is limited to the role of an observer.

The Moldovan authorities are intensifying their policy to promote cashless payments among the population and businesses. The National Strategy for Financial Inclusion is currently being developed: the document envisages the creation of a sustainable and trustworthy financial ecosystem in the next five years, Logos Press reports.

The US has long been the main driver of global economic growth, including now, thanks to the boom in artificial intelligence (AI). This boom shows no signs of cooling, and it is financed by dollars, which remain the central pillar of global finance.

In global currency markets, the U.S. dollar rose more than 1% this week. This was helped by positive economic data, a tougher stance from the Federal Reserve and tensions between the US and Iran, which kept markets on edge, Logos Press reports.

The Moldovan leu has appreciated by 0.59% over the last month and has gained a record 8.93% over the last 12 months, which indicates not only growing confidence in the national currency, Logos Press reported.

The euro is falling amid reports of the ECB chief stepping down early ahead of next year’s French presidential election to give outgoing French leader Emmanuel Macron a chance to influence the choice of her successor, Logos Press reported, citing the Financial Times.

Sweden is considering abandoning its national currency (krona) in favor of the euro, due to geopolitical changes, NATO membership and the krona’s vulnerability, according to Logos Press.

The National Bank of Moldova (NBM) proceeds from the expectation that the US dollar will depreciate less in 2026 than in 2025, as the initial effect of trade duties will subside, Logos Press reported.