According to the expert’s calculations, he wrote about this on his Facebook page: Cesar Gheorghe, an expert in agromarketing and founder of AGRIColumn. Based on his calculations, the potential volume of Ukrainian cargo bound for Romania is estimated at 37.5 million metric tons. Ukrainian sources predict that 70% of Ukraine’s raw material exports could pass through Romania, while the remaining 30% would go through Poland, Hungary, and other neighboring countries. At the same time, Romania’s own agricultural export potential this year amounts to at least 20 million metric tons of agricultural products.
According to an expert, storage capacity at the Port of Constanța has increased to 2 million metric tons of one-time storage following the modernization of the Comvex and Canopus terminals. Assuming 20 turnarounds of this transit volume per season, the port’s estimated throughput capacity is approximately 40 million metric tons.
Meanwhile, the combined transshipment needs of Ukraine and Romania could total 57.5 million metric tons, which exceeds the port’s estimated capacity by 17.5 million metric tons. Since Romania has already exported about 5.75–6 million metric tons, Gheorghe estimates the potential shortfall by the end of the period at the aforementioned 11.6 million metric tons.
At the same time, the expert emphasizes that this calculation does not take into account potential exports of sunflower and rapeseed oil and meal, as well as cargo from Serbia, Hungary, and Moldova passing through the port of Constanța.
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