Photo: Reuters
Logos Press had previously reported that online retailers are seeking to restrict AI agents’ access to their platforms for fear that they will divert customers to other sellers. Now, the largest e-commerce platforms are also concerned about their advertising revenues.
A $74.4 billion advertising market
According to Reuters, citing estimates from analysts and market participants, Amazon and Walmart hold a dominant position in the US retail media market. According to estimates by the research firm eMarketer, the two corporations together account for 88 per cent of this market, which is valued at $74.4 billion.
This refers to advertising placements that product manufacturers pay retail platforms for, in order to promote their products on websites and in mobile apps. For retailers, this is a highly profitable line of business, based on access to consumer data and the ability to influence shoppers’ choices directly at the point of purchase.
However, the proliferation of AI agents could change this model. Such tools are capable of independently comparing products, analysing specifications, searching for offers and placing orders, effectively replacing traditional search functions on e-commerce platforms.
According to estimates by Morgan Stanley analysts, by 2030, AI agents could account for 10–20 per cent of e-commerce spending in the US.
Amazon restricts access, Walmart partners with Meta
As Reuters notes, the two largest e-commerce platforms have adopted different approaches to the development of agent-driven commerce.
In September, Amazon blocked access to its marketplace for Muse – Meta’s AI agent capable of searching for and purchasing goods on users’ behalf. Amazon explained the decision by stating that the tool, it claimed, had gained access to the online shop without authorisation and had been collecting and storing customers’ login details.
The company insists that third-party AI agents must operate transparently and comply with the decisions of e-commerce platform owners regarding access to their services.
Previously, Amazon had also secured a court injunction against the use of Perplexity’s Comet shopping agent. However, in August, the US Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals overturned this injunction. Amazon has stated its disagreement with the ruling, and legal proceedings are ongoing.
Walmart, by contrast, has opted for a collaborative approach. On 21 October, the company unveiled an infrastructure enabling third-party AI agents to operate within its retail ecosystem.
When using such a tool to search for products, Walmart creates a separate agent profile linked to the shopper’s account. The user can confirm purchases or set spending limits.
In this way, the company is attempting to integrate the new technology into its own retail infrastructure, whilst maintaining the link between the agent, the customer and the platform.
Advertising revenue is becoming a battleground
These potential changes are particularly significant for Amazon and Walmart, as retail advertising plays a major role in their business models.
According to LSEG, Amazon’s advertising revenue in the third quarter grew by 11 per cent year-on-year. This was the slowest rate of growth in nearly four years. The advertising segment consistently accounts for around 10 per cent of the company’s total net revenue.
Meanwhile, Amazon’s CEO Andy Jassy stated last week that third-party AI agents are not yet having a significant impact on the company’s advertising business.
Walmart also recognises the importance of its advertising business. The company’s Chief Financial Officer, John David Rainey, told analysts and investors that advertising – including the Walmart Connect division – alongside membership programmes and the marketplace, accounted for 45 per cent of the increase in operating profit for the quarter. The company does not disclose separate financial figures for Walmart Connect.
Dan Mark, CEO of the retail advertising platform Footprints AI, expects retail chains to begin entering into multi-year agreements with major advertisers to secure advertising revenue amid market changes. At the same time, he forecasts intensified price competition and the possible introduction of discounts on digital advertising.
Advertising will target not only shoppers but also algorithms
Changes in the way products are searched for may require manufacturers to rethink their marketing strategies.
Traditional advertising in online shops is primarily human-centred: visual design, emotional impact, brand recognition and the placement of products on the page all influence the decision to buy.
In the case of AI agents, other characteristics may become more important: the accuracy of product descriptions, technical specifications, price, product availability and relevance to a specific user query.
Amazon has already integrated advertising capabilities into its AI assistant, Alexa for Shopping, whilst Walmart is testing advertising within its own chatbot, Sparky.
Major manufacturers, including Procter & Gamble, Nestlé and L’Oréal, are working to ensure that information about their products is more accessible and understandable to AI agents.
According to experts, this could lead to a shift in the principles of product promotion: brands will have to compete not only for shoppers’ attention, but also to ensure that algorithms include their products in search results and recommendations.
However, Morningstar analyst Brett Hasslein views these developments more as an evolution of the retail advertising market than as a threat to its very existence.
According to eMarketer’s forecast, spending on retail media in 2026 will increase by 22.6 per cent compared with last year’s $60.7 billion.
Consultancy firm Flywheel also advises advertisers against making drastic changes to their budgets. Its spokesperson, Amy Owen, believes it is more sensible to prepare in advance for changes in the way products are searched for and purchasing decisions are made.
Thus, AI agents have not yet displaced traditional e-commerce platforms and advertising tools. However, their proliferation poses a fundamentally new question for Amazon, Walmart and manufacturers: who will control the interaction with the consumer and derive the primary economic benefit from this contact – the marketplace, the brand or an independent AI intermediary?
This story was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.The translation was also reviewed by the Logos Press editorial team.
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