According to the central bank’s estimates, inflationary pressures are expected to peak at the end of 2026. Annual inflation (not specified) ‘will remain at a relatively high level due to accumulated inflationary pressures’. The rate will reach its peak at the end of this year.
Thereafter, as domestic and external price pressures ease, inflation will begin a steady decline throughout 2027. The rate is expected to return to the NBM’s target range (5.0% ±1.5) in the third quarter of 2027 (previously forecast for the second quarter).
The lowest levels are forecast only for 2028. According to the NBM’s calculations, further stabilisation of the economy and the fading of the effects of past shocks will allow inflation to be kept within the target corridor until the end of the forecast period, with the lowest levels expected in the first half of 2028.
What influenced the revision of the forecast
Within the consumer basket, the various components are showing mixed trends:
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Regulated prices and fuel (forecast revised upwards)
Tariffs for grid gas and associated services will rise more sharply than expected, even taking into account temporary measures to support consumers. Fuel prices have also been revised upwards until the first half of 2027 following the rise in global oil prices, although this effect is partly offset by the strong exchange rate.
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Food and core inflation (forecast revised downwards)
Weakening domestic demand and a strengthening national currency will hold back food price inflation until the third quarter of 2027, offsetting high global food prices.
Expectations for food price inflation have been revised downwards until the third quarter of 2027. Weakening domestic demand and the strengthening of the Moldovan leu will outweigh the pressure from high global food prices. For the same reasons, the forecast for core inflation has been revised downwards for the entire period.
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Core inflation
The forecast for this indicator has also been revised downwards for the entire period against the backdrop of more moderate domestic demand and the expected strengthening of the exchange rate.
Earlier, in its monetary policy decision of 5 November 2026, the National Bank noted that annual inflation would continue to rise until the end of the current year. The figure is expected to start falling in early 2027 and return to the regulator’s target range (5.0% ±1.5 percentage points) in the third quarter of 2027. Average annual inflation is forecast at 7.3 per cent in 2026 and 6.9 per cent in 2027.
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