Production of all major cereal crops is expected to fall. However, the most significant decline is forecast for the wheat segment of the global market, whilst the other segments will be affected to a lesser extent. Rice production will fall for the first time in four seasons – by 2.5 per cent (to 552 million tonnes). This is due to low profitability and adverse weather conditions linked to the El Niño phenomenon.
According to forecasts, global cereal consumption in the 2026/27 marketing year will increase slightly – by 0.2 per cent (to 2,971 million tonnes). Most of the expected growth is attributable to food consumption. Thus, consumption of food-grade wheat and rice will increase by 0.8 per cent and 1.0 per cent respectively. This is slightly below the rate of global population growth.
According to the FAO forecast, by the end of the 2027 season, global cereal stocks will increase by 17.2 million tonnes, or 1.8 per cent. This largely reflects an increase in wheat stocks in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, where export disruptions are contributing to the build-up of stocks. The projected ratio of global cereal stocks to consumption stands at 32.4 per cent, which is slightly higher than the previous season’s level.
FAO analysts forecast that global trade in cereals in the 2026/27 season will fall by 3.3 per cent (to 507.7 million tonnes). The main reason for this will be an 8.6 per cent fall in wheat trade, with shipments from all major exporters set to decline due to supply or logistical issues.
This story was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.
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