This conclusion is set out in the tenth edition of DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook.
According to the study, the share of non-fossil energy in the primary energy balance of importing countries has risen by 2.2 percentage points over the past five years. In exporting countries, the increase was only 0.7 percentage points.
DNV identifies Europe, China and India as the regions reducing their dependence on fossil fuels most rapidly. Among the largest oil and gas exporters, the pace of transition is slower.
Energy security is accelerating the transition to electricity
DNV attributes this trend, in part, to supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Rising geopolitical risks are strengthening importing countries’ drive to diversify their energy supply and increase electricity generation from domestic sources.
Against this backdrop, DNV expects the role of solar and wind energy, as well as energy storage systems, to continue to grow. The installed capacity of battery storage systems has increased 14-fold over the past five years.
At the same time, the company’s forecast suggests a decline in the Middle East’s share of global oil production: by 2050, the region may account for around 40 per cent of global production, compared with the 50 per cent projected by DNV a year earlier.
If the conflict in the Middle East drags on until 2030, global demand for oil and gas could be 4–6 per cent below the baseline forecast for the duration of the conflict. Subsequently, according to DNV’s scenario, demand may remain 2–5 per cent below the baseline trajectory.
The company believes that energy security is becoming one of the key factors reshaping the direction of the global energy transition.
However, it will not be possible to completely phase out fossil fuels in the foreseeable future. DNV forecasts that by the middle of the century, energy-related emissions will fall by 44 per cent; however, the current trajectory is leading to a rise in global temperature of approximately 2.3°C.
This story was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.The translation was also reviewed by the Logos Press editorial team.
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