For Bitcoin, this is an unusually mild correction. In previous cycles, it lost three times as much a year after hitting a record high. Traders are now debating whether the familiar four-year cycle still holds, writes beincrypto.com.
One year after the peak: where has the usual 80 per cent drop gone?
A trader going by the pseudonym Macro Bombastic has compared the current correction with previous cycles. Here are the losses following previous highs:
– following the December 2017 peak — 82 per cent;
– following the November 2021 peak — 75 per cent.
If the market were following the old pattern, Bitcoin would be worth around $23,000 today. The low point of this cycle occurred on 1 July, when the price fell to $57,800. Since then, the coin has gained around 48 per cent.
According to Macro Bombastic, Bitcoin will not fall below $70,000. However, he qualifies this by noting that the two completed cycles do not provide sufficient statistical data, and it is impossible to prove that the four-year cycle is over. But the market has changed. In 2018 and 2022, there were no spot ETFs, governments did not hold Bitcoin in their reserves, and the market capitalisation was an order of magnitude smaller. According to him, the decline was absorbed by demand that simply did not exist before.
The annual loss looks different if you take a longer-term view. According to coin.dance, Bitcoin has fallen by more than 30 per cent over the past year, but over two years it is still up by 37.66 per cent, over three years by 208 per cent, and over five years by 73 per cent. Over nine years, the coin has risen by 1,817 per cent, which is an average of approximately 39 per cent per year on a compound basis. Over the last six months, the price has risen by 24 per cent.
Blogger That Martini Guy describes the 2026 correction as one of the most unpleasant in the cycle, but draws attention to the speed of the recovery. Bitcoin has returned to levels around $87,000, and if it consolidates above $100,000, talk of a new all-time high will once again become a realistic prospect.
When will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high?
The author of the Caffe’ Satoshi channel has noticed another pattern. The intervals between Bitcoin’s all-time highs are getting shorter:
– exactly three years passed between the peak on 16 December 2017 and the record high on 16 December 2020;
– from the peak on 10 November 2021 to the record high on 8 March 2024 — two years, three months and 27 days;
– the most recent high was recorded on 6 October 2025, and a year has passed since then.
If the interval continues to shrink at the same rate, Bitcoin will return to the $126,000 mark in the first quarter of 2027, and then exceed it.
Trader Crypto Rover is even more optimistic. He points out that, historically, every Bitcoin bear market has ended exactly one year after its peak. This time, in his view, the bottom was reached even earlier, and he believes the price will only go up from here.
What the figures show
In the year following the peak, the market weathered the period without a crash, but also without its former momentum. The main changes are as follows:
– Bitcoin’s market capitalisation has shrunk by approximately $700 billion;
– in the fourth quarter of 2025, the network underwent three consecutive negative difficulty adjustments, something that had not happened since July 2022;
– By early February, the hash rate had fallen to 850 EH/s; it is now rising again, but remains about 20 per cent short of last year’s record;
– the dollar valuation of ETFs fell by nearly $67 billion, but the cumulative net inflow decreased by only $6 billion — the funds lost a tenth of the capital raised since 2024;
– In September 2026, spot ETFs attracted $2.7 billion, and in a single week — $2.4 billion, the highest figure since October last year;
– Strategy purchased over 200,000 BTC and continued to buy in a falling market.
The Bitcoin held in the funds’ vaults has not gone anywhere. The decline in their assets is due to price movements, not redemptions. This is precisely the demand that was absent in 2018 and 2022.
The market has become larger, slower and calmer. The coming quarters will show whether this is enough to reach a new all-time high.
This story was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.The translation was also reviewed by the Logos Press editorial team.
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