Global Grain Prices to Rise 9.3% in 2027, World Bank Forecasts

Global price rises will continue in 2027, but at a slower pace

By the end of 2026, the grain price index will have risen by 14.1 per cent. For 2026, the World Bank forecasts a 28 per cent rise in wheat prices and a 10 per cent rise in maize prices. In the coming year, price rises for these commodities will continue, but at a slower pace. The average annual global price index for cereals in 2027 will rise by 9.3 per cent. Of the major cereals, wheat is likely to see the sharpest rise next year – by 14 per cent – whilst maize will be the underperformer in the grain market, with growth of just 5 per cent.

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This is stated in the World Bank’s October report, *Commodity Markets Outlook*, according to ukragroconsult. The rise in grain prices is primarily linked to disruptions to exports via the Black Sea due to military risks and reduced production in certain countries. In the 2026/27 marketing year, global wheat production is forecast to be 3 per cent lower than in the previous season. Specifically, it may fall by 23 per cent in the US, by 8 per cent in the EU and by 12 per cent in Canada. In Argentina and Australia, production is expected to decline by 23–25 per cent.

Against a backdrop of falling production and supply disruptions, global wheat exports in the 2026/27 season may fall by 7 per cent. In particular, exports from Ukraine are forecast to be 11 per cent lower than in the previous season, and those from Russia 8 per cent lower.

Global maize production in the 2026/27 season will fall by 3 per cent. An 8 per cent increase in production in Ukraine and an 11 per cent rise in Russia will partially offset lower yields in Argentina, Brazil, the EU and the US. At the same time, maize production in the European Union could fall by 20 per cent – to its lowest level in almost two decades.

In its baseline forecast, the World Bank assumes that disruptions to shipments via the Black Sea will persist until the end of 2026, but will ease significantly in 2027. If attacks on ports and grain infrastructure continue at the current intensity, and there are insufficient alternative export routes, grain prices could turn out to be significantly higher than forecast.

At the same time, despite the expected decline compared with the previous season, global grain supply in the 2026/27 marketing year will remain the second highest on record. It will be approximately 3 per cent higher than in 2024/25. However, high energy prices are exerting additional pressure on food markets, as they increase farmers’ production costs and stimulate demand for biofuels.

This story was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.The translation was also reviewed by the Logos Press editorial team.

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