Photo: Reuters
Ukrainian intelligence agencies attribute these plans to the Russian army’s casualties and a slowdown in the recruitment of contract soldiers. According to their estimates, Russian troops lost approximately 240,000 personnel in the first six months of the year. Of these, approximately 140,000 were killed or sustained injuries that will prevent them from returning to active duty. During the same period, according to Kyiv, 232,000 people signed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense, Euronews reports.
The recruitment situation is particularly challenging in the Oryol and Vladimir regions, as well as in Dagestan. In the Kurgan region, monthly recruitment targets are being met at a rate of 57–69%. In the Volgograd region, the number of potential contract soldiers has decreased by 40% compared to 2025.
In a number of regions, the number of debtors, convicts, migrants, and other groups previously used to replenish the army has decreased by 30–40%. The campaign to recruit students also failed to yield the expected results, according to a statement from the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) and the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR).
At the same time, Russia is expanding the scope of military registration. In particular, legislation allows for the conscription of certain categories of citizens with outstanding criminal convictions. These include individuals convicted of organized crime, organizing illegal migration, and a number of crimes related to the illegal trafficking of weapons, drugs, and explosives. Ukrainian intelligence also reports that mechanisms are being developed to enlist certain categories of convicted women.
By the end of July, according to the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), more than 2,500 job openings related to mobilization efforts had appeared on Russian job search websites.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had previously spoken of a possible new round of conscription following the September elections. In an interview with Reuters, he stated that Russia could call up another 300,000 people. According to him, the main burden in such a case would fall on regions outside Russia’s largest cities.
Moscow rejects these claims. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov called reports of preparations for a new mobilization “fake news.”
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