Economic growth is set to slow to 1.9 per cent in 2026 (following an estimated 2.4 per cent in 2025). The consequences of conflicts, rising resource costs and weak external demand are expected to act as restraining factors. The forecast for 2027 has been revised slightly upwards to 3 per cent.
Consumer price inflation remains a key focus for the bank’s experts. Their baseline forecast stands at an average of 5.3% for the year, with the figure expected to return to the central bank’s target range. The National Bank is more categorical in its assessments: forecasts suggest a possible 9.2 per cent by the end of 2026, with an average annual price increase of 7 per cent.
At the same time, World Bank experts emphasise that, in the event of a new escalation in the Middle East and a 50 per cent surge in oil and gas prices, inflation in Moldova could indeed follow an unfavourable scenario.
According to the World Bank, Moldova’s public expenditure is influenced by significant social obligations. The bank’s analysts estimate that the budget deficit will remain high in the medium term — above 4 per cent of GDP.
The Bank’s analysts believe that sustained public investment, supported by funding under the EU’s Economic Growth Plan for Moldova, could be the main driver of stability in the current circumstances.
This story was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.The translation was also reviewed by the Logos Press editorial team.
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