Many experts and analysts acknowledge that these elections will be of crucial importance both for the autonomous region itself and for Chișinău. Relations between the central government and the autonomous region have not merely deteriorated in recent years – they have all but ceased to exist. Therefore, the figure of the new Bashkan of Gagauzia and the new composition of the Gagauz National Assembly are significant – both for the region’s development and for dialogue with Chisinau.
Predictions are a thankless task
As always in the run-up to elections, there is no shortage of predictions, assessments and possible scenarios in the media. The range of opinions also fits within the usual pre-election clamour – with some promoting their view of ‘who Gagauzia needs most’ out of conviction, whilst others do so for purely mercenary reasons.
Against this backdrop, a more or less objective approach to forecasting, based on a survey of the autonomous region’s residents, is of particular interest.
On 12 November, the polling organisation IMAS published the third stage of its survey of Gagauzia’s residents on voters’ preferences and their views on the situation in the autonomous region.
One of the key findings is that around 71 per cent of residents of Gagauz-Yeri stated their intention to take part in the vote. This is a fairly high percentage, indicating considerable interest among the Gagauz people in the upcoming elections.
What is particularly worrying is that 44 per cent of those surveyed believe that the Bashkan elections will not be fair and free. Only 40 per cent are confident that the opposite is true, whilst a further 16 per cent were undecided on this issue.
The frontrunners in the poll are Stoyanoglo and Gagauz
As regards the candidates for the post of Bashkan of Gagauzia specifically, out of the eight contenders, 26.5 per cent of respondents intend to support Alexander Stoyanoglo, with Fyodor Gagauz in second place at 17.5 per cent. However, over the three stages of the survey, Stoyanoglo’s figures have been on a downward trend – 32.4 per cent, 29.2 per cent and 26.5 per cent respectively – whilst Gagauz has shown the opposite trend – 3.2 per cent, 11.6 per cent and 17.5 per cent.
This appears to reflect the advantage of support for the candidate from the Party of Socialists of Moldova, for which Fedor Gagauz is standing. This is also borne out by the survey data on which of the candidates is running the most active election campaign. The Socialist candidate leads here with 29.5 per cent, whilst Stoyanoglo stands at 18.7 per cent.
In terms of respondents’ preferences for the post of Head of Gagauzia, the independent candidate Ivanna Kökçal came third with 9.6 per cent support. Meanwhile, over 27 per cent of respondents were undecided.
The IMAS poll was conducted in three stages throughout the election campaign – in September, October and November.
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