photo: ukragroconsult
The reason may not be the potential shortage of railcars per se, but a slowdown in their turnover. This was reported by Dmitry Kazanin, owner and director of TEUS, Latifundist.com writes.
According to him, the average turnover of grain carriers in stable conditions was 2-2.2 trips per month, but in 2026, this figure has fallen to 1.4-1.6 trips for certain destinations. “In fact, the market is behaving as if about a third of the grain carrier fleet has become unavailable – even without a physical reduction in the number of railcars,” the quoted source explained.
TEUS predicts that summer 2026 will remain a relatively stable period for the market, but starting as early as August, the shortage of available railcars and reduced turnover rates could increase pressure on logistics. As a result, freight rates could rise even without record export volumes. During the peak months of the season, the cost of leasing grain cars can be 2-2.5 times higher than summer rates. “Companies waiting for the fall may get not only a higher rate, but also limited access to railcars,” says Dmitry Kazanin.
Separately, the expert singled out grain carriers capable of transporting large shipments. Due to limited availability, they can be traded at a premium of 400-500 hryvnias per day compared to standard grain carriers (volume of 94 m³). During periods of peak demand this difference may increase.
What does this mean for exporters?
Low export rates do not guarantee cheaper logistics. Rates are increasingly influenced by the speed of the logistics cycle, the operation of ports, terminals and waiting time for unloading. Wagon availability can no longer be planned separately from the port or terminal; transportation efficiency depends on the entire logistics chain.
“For the first time, the market is starting to compete not only with the rate, but also with the ability to guarantee railcar availability and logistics stability during the peak period. Even if exports are lower than the previous season, uneven port operations, railcar accumulation and cycle delays can create shortages during peak months,” TEUS Director.
