Politico: Trump Could Cut US Troop Presence in Europe

Trump could deal a crushing blow to NATO if he loses the election – Politico

The US President may withdraw thousands more troops from Europe or cut funding for the Alliance.

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Should Donald Trump suffer defeat in the US mid-term elections, he could deal a blow to NATO, and allies are already preparing for the “worst-case scenario”, writes Politico.

According to five NATO diplomats, European allies fear that a defeat for the Republican Party could prompt President Donald Trump to sharply step up his criticism of the alliance.

Thus, faced with constraints from Congress on domestic policy, Trump – as Commander-in-Chief of the US armed forces – may attempt to cement his legacy in the realm of foreign policy, where he has far greater freedom of action. According to three diplomats, this could mean the withdrawal of several thousand more US troops from Europe.

“Usually, presidents in the final months of their term either start venting their pent-up frustration or embark on foreign policy adventures,” noted a senior defence official from one of the European countries. And the attacks on NATO, he said, “seem to be an integral part of Trump’s worldview”.

It is expected that the Democrats may gain control of the House of Representatives and, possibly, the Senate, whilst Trump’s personal approval rating has fallen to its lowest level since records began.

“He may be very angry,” remarked one NATO diplomat. “And if so, his reaction will be extremely harsh.”

Troops, Ukraine and Russia

At the heart of these concerns is the forthcoming review of US troop numbers in Europe, the results of which are expected by December. According to three diplomats, if Trump faces obstacles in pursuing his domestic policies, he may attempt to significantly scale up troop withdrawals in order to rally his supporters behind him.

According to the diplomats, Trump may also cut US contributions to the alliance’s overall budget, restrict the NATO-backed Programme for Ukraine’s Defence (PURL), and further strengthen ties with Russia, reports unian.net.

In theory, a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate could restrict Trump’s freedom of action, including on foreign policy and defence matters – even though US legislation currently sets a minimum threshold for US troop numbers in Europe at 76,000.

However, according to Jennifer Cavanaugh, a senior research fellow at the think tank Defence Priorities, “the Trump administration regularly ignores Congress’s funding directives, channelling funds into activities that the legislative branch has not authorised”.

Cavana noted that if Trump decides to carry out a more extensive reduction in troop numbers, it will be extremely difficult for Europe to make up for the lost capabilities – particularly in areas such as electronic warfare, air defence, intelligence and surveillance, in-flight refuelling and certain types of logistical support.

Other allies are more sceptical that Trump will deal a crushing blow to NATO. However, as one diplomat from a NATO country remarked, “to make predictions with a high degree of certainty, you need a decision-maker who acts rationally. I do not think the current US president falls into that category.”

This story was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.The translation was also reviewed by the Logos Press editorial team.

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