As a result of the blockade of sea routes, agricultural exports in August fell to a record low of 1.8 million tonnes. The reorientation of exports towards alternative routes led only to a partial resumption of shipments in September, reaching 2.7 million tonnes. This is stated in the National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) inflation report for October.
Furthermore, ferrous metal exports in the third quarter fell by 55 per cent year-on-year. A further decline to 81 per cent is expected in the fourth quarter.
The shutdown of the largest steelworks in the second half of 2026 could lead to a loss of around $1 billion in export revenue and an additional $0.4 billion in imports to cover the domestic metal deficit. In other words, Ukraine’s trade balance losses resulting from the naval blockade and shelling will reach $6.6 billion in the second half of 2026.
According to the National Bank’s baseline scenario, the blockade of seaports will continue into the first half of 2027. Ore exports will be $0.6 billion lower than if the seaports were operating at full capacity, whilst agricultural produce will be exported in the second half of 2027; however, some of it will be lost as a result of prolonged storage.
Under the baseline scenario, the harvest of cereals and oilseeds will also be 2.7 million tonnes lower in 2027. This will result in a loss of around $4 billion in export revenue from agricultural exports.
According to the forecast, steelworks will not resume production throughout 2027, leading to a loss of exports amounting to $2.6 billion and an increase in imports of metal products to meet the economy’s needs of $1.5 billion. Overall, for 2027, the NBU forecasts a loss of export revenue amounting to $7.2 billion and an increase in imports of $1.5 billion.
This story was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.The translation was also reviewed by the Logos Press editorial team.
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