IEA Cuts Global Oil Demand Forecast for 2026
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IEA worsens forecast for global oil demand in 2026

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has worsened the forecast for global oil demand in 2026 due to the military conflict in the Middle East. Daily demand reduction is expected at the level of 418 thousand barrels per day to the level of 104 million bpd. The forecast is worsened by 334 thousand bpd compared to the April estimate, and the peak of the decline is expected in the second quarter - 2.45 million bpd.
Ирина Коваленко Reading time: 1 minute
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This follows from the IEA report. Instead of growth, a daily decline in global demand is expected. The agency has worsened the demand forecast by 334 thousand b/s compared to the April forecast (a decrease of 84 thousand b/s was expected instead of the demand growth forecasted earlier). The forecast was reduced by 1.3 mln b/s compared to the estimate given before the Middle East conflict.

The IEA expects the maximum decline in global oil consumption in the second quarter of 2026 – 2.45 mln b/s. Previously, the agency forecasted a decline of 1.5 mln bpd over these three months.

The IEA expects that in 2026 the world demand for oil will amount to 104 mln bpd against 104.342 mln bpd in the past.



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