Between July 13 and 21, the price rose from 51.35 EUR/MWh to 59.84 EUR/MWh, representing an increase of 8.49 EUR/MWh, or approximately 16.5%, according to the state-owned company Energocom.
Several external factors are influencing price trends. Escalating tensions in the Middle East and growing risks in the Red Sea are affecting one of the world’s most important trade routes, through which about 12% of global trade passes. At the same time, the blockade announced by Houthi rebels against ships sailing to Saudi ports is putting additional pressure on regional energy flows, including the transport of about 2.5 million barrels of crude oil per day through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Pressure on the European market is also driven by a reduction in liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies to Northwestern Europe. LNG flows were approximately 25% below the 30-day average—namely, about 94 million m³/day—compared to an average of 125 million m³/day.
At the same time, European gas reserves remain below the usual level for this period. Storage fill rates in the European Union stand at about 54%, compared to a five-year seasonal average of about 70%.
According to current quotes, prices for the coming months remain high but indicate a slight decline toward the end of the year: from approximately 59.8 euros/MWh in August–October to approximately 58.3 euros/MWh in December 2026.
Price trends in the coming period will depend on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the availability of LNG supplies to Europe, and the pace of stockpiling for the cold season, according to Energocom’s report.
Tariffs Need to Be Raised
As a reminder, last week Energocom appealed to the National Energy Regulatory Agency (ANRE) to raise regulated natural gas tariffs by 45.1%, as natural gas prices in Europe have risen sharply due to renewed tensions in the Middle East.
ANRE will consider this request on Friday, July 24.
