At the same time, analysts emphasize that this is not the base-case scenario; however, geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to increase pressure on the global energy market.
According to Goldman Sachs, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the reduction in oil exports from the Persian Gulf to less than 45% of pre-war levels have already led to a noticeable rise in prices, Bloomberg notes. Against this backdrop, the price of Brent has once again surpassed the $90-per-barrel mark.
The bank’s analysts believe that if restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz persist over the coming months, the price of Brent could rise above $120 per barrel as early as the fourth quarter.
At the same time, Goldman Sachs emphasizes that this scenario is viewed as a risk scenario rather than the main market forecast.
The baseline forecast remains significantly lower
The bank’s base case scenario assumes a gradual easing of tensions in the region. In this scenario, the average price of Brent in the fourth quarter will be around $80 per barrel, and around $75 in 2027.
However, analysts note that the balance of risks is tilted toward higher prices due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and possible new disruptions in the Red Sea.
Despite rising production in the U.S. and a slight softening of demand from China, geopolitical tensions remain the main driver of the oil market.
That is precisely why investors are closely monitoring developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the potential implications for global oil supplies.
