Following a series of strikes targeting logistics in the Sea of Azov, Russia was forced to temporarily suspend traffic through the Don-Azov Canal and the Kerch Strait, which significantly restricted the use of one of the key export routes for agricultural products. This immediately affected the global grain trade.
In response, Russia intensified its attacks on Ukrainian ports in the Odesa region, through which more than 90% of Ukraine’s grain and vegetable oil exports pass. Russian authorities stated that several ships flying the flags of third countries (not involved in the conflict) but operating on behalf of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had been attacked.
Exports Suspended, Prices Rising
In any case, as a result of the strikes on Odesa’s ports, some major terminals have already suspended operations, according to ukragroconsult. Some bloggers on social media claim that these ports were closed for a time yesterday, at least to incoming vessels.
This information has been indirectly confirmed by reputable media outlets. “Massive Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure have led to a de facto halt in deep-water grain exports. Most major traders have suspended purchases of agricultural products on CPT terms at deep-water ports, and some terminals have temporarily ceased operations, according to Bogdan Kostetsky, an operating partner at Barva Invest,” latifundist reported today.
Among the traders that have temporarily scaled back purchases of products for transshipment through deep-water ports is Ukraine’s largest agricultural holding, Kernel.
Concerns about a possible reduction in shipments have significantly affected wheat prices in the Black Sea region.
Ukraine’s special operation has also extended beyond the Azov Sea. Military bloggers on both sides and Ukraine’s official media are reporting strikes in the Black Sea against ships, particularly those associated with the “Russian shadow fleet.”
Meanwhile, as with Ukrainian exports, 90% of Russia’s seaborne grain exports also pass through ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin. Moreover, the bulk of these shipments is loaded through deep-water Black Sea ports—Novorossiysk, Taman, and Tuapse. During the peak export period for the new grain harvest, it will be extremely difficult to reroute these flows to other routes due to the limited capacity of port and rail infrastructure.
The Importance of Black Sea Traffic
The Black Sea’s importance to the global wheat market is comparable to the role of the Persian Gulf in the oil market. If disruptions to the Azov and Black Sea routes persist, Russian exporters’ losses could run into the billions of dollars, and global grain prices will remain under pressure from logistical risks.
Thus, the escalation of tensions in the Azov and Black Seas poses risks to exports from the region’s two largest wheat suppliers. A further escalation of attacks on ships, ports, and logistics routes could exacerbate the volatility of global prices and create additional risks for countries dependent on Black Sea grain imports.
According to the USDA FAS forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year, Russia could account for more than 20% of global wheat exports, while Ukraine’s share is about 7%. Together, the two countries account for nearly 30% of global wheat exports. Therefore, any disruptions in Black Sea logistics are quickly reflected in the global market.
In the current situation, well-known influencers in Romania’s agri-food sector—in particular, AGRIColum founder Cezar Gheorghe— — note that the Romanian port of Constanța remains the only predictable export hub for agricultural products in the eastern Black Sea region.
However, there are already signs of logistical problems—long lines of trucks at the entrance to the Port of Constanța (Dana 32).
