The plunge in shares of Strategy, Michael Saylor’s company and the largest holder of Bitcoin, is a painful but necessary part of the market cycle and signals that Bitcoin is nearing its bottom. Matt Hogan, chief investment officer at the asset management firm Bitwise, wrote about this, predicting the start of a bull market in the fall of 2026, according to RBC.
Hogan is referring to market participants’ concerns about Strategy’s financial position and its ability to meet its obligations. This coincided with a drop in the company’s stock price in late June, which hit multi-year lows. The company itself shifted its strategy from buying Bitcoin to actively managing its reserves, allowing for the sale of $1.25 billion worth of the cryptocurrency.
In late June, the price of MSTR common stock hit its lowest level since February 2024, falling below $82. Meanwhile, the price of STRC preferred shares hit a historic low of $71.25, which is nearly 30% below their par value. As of July 2, the prices had recovered to $100 and $86, respectively, a few days after Strategy’s decision to sell Bitcoin.
“As the market stabilizes, I am convinced that the bottom is closer than ever. And in the fall, we’ll enter a new bull market,” Hogan wrote, adding that “market lows only become apparent in hindsight.”
According to Andre Dragos, head of Bitwise’s European research department, the market could turn upward before fall even arrives: “It looks like July will be the month of transition from a bear market to a bull market.”
Experts are increasingly pointing to fall as the starting point of a new bull cycle. Some cite seasonality, while others see it as a statistically “reliable” time for Bitcoin to reverse its price trend.
At the same time, on July 1, the Bitcoin price hit a multi-year low—below $58,000—that had persisted since September 2024, which is more than 50% below its all-time high in October 2025. At the time of writing, the price had risen slightly from its lows to $62,000.
Hogan believes that Strategy will no longer be the dominant player in Bitcoin purchases, and that institutional investors will take its place. He dismisses concerns about the company facing financial difficulties, stating that for that to happen, Bitcoin would have to fall by more than 70% and remain at that level for years.
To describe the situation, he provided a rough outline of market movements between bull cycles, implying that Strategy’s shift in strategy plays a key role: “First, a bull market. Then investors become greedy and increase their leverage, often resorting to financial tricks. Then something breaks, and the process reverses.
He also noted that a similar situation occurred in past cycles. He compared the current dynamics to the shares of the private trust Grayscale (GBTC), which was a major holder of Bitcoin from 2019 to 2021. During those years, before the market turned upward, GBTC exhibited a similar trend to Strategy (MSTR) shares, despite having billions in Bitcoin reserves on its balance sheet.
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