The main reason is that this autumn, dairy farmers have not yet received subsidies ‘per kilogramme of milk for processing’. And the prospects for these payments this year remain unclear. Logos Press was informed of this by the ‘Lapte’ Association of Milk and Dairy Product Producers.
Logos Press previously reported that, according to the conclusions of certain members of the National Committee for Monitoring the Strategic Programme for Agricultural Policy (PSPA) for 2026–30, ‘this programme faces a partial default’. In particular, due to the reallocation of funds within the state budget’s National Fund for the Support of Agriculture and Rural Areas (FNDAMR), there may not be sufficient funds to finance several ‘support measures’ for farmers. These include direct payments to livestock farmers ‘per kilogramme of milk for processing’.
The problem, of course, can be ‘resolved’ by amending the budget and replenishing the FNDAMR’s 2026 fund. However, the bigger problem is that the Moldovan state is severely short of funds in general – for providing partial compensation to the population and businesses for energy costs ahead of winter, for the promised pay rises for public sector workers, and so on.
Meanwhile, direct ‘milk’ payments, which have been practised in the dairy farming sector for several years now, have come to be an important – and, in a sense, system-defining – component of Moldova’s dairy industry.
According to expert estimates, the size of this subsidy for certain categories of farmers accounted for tens of per cent of the price of raw milk. This payment was factored into business plans for revenue from product sales. (This is usually the case with all subsidies in Moldova’s agri-food sector, but unlike, for example, ad hoc post-investment compensation, these payments were made on a regular basis.) For a significant number of Moldovan livestock farmers, the presence or absence of these payments represents the difference between their business being profitable or making a loss.
A return to the tradition of seasonal fluctuations in raw milk purchase prices?
Another interesting coincidence is that the start of regular ‘milk’ subsidy payments roughly coincides with the point at which the large seasonal fluctuations in purchase prices on Moldova’s dairy market began to level off.
In other words, there used to be a clear correlation: during the warmer months, the supply of milk is high and prices fall; during the colder months, the supply of raw milk drops and prices rise. The subsidies have, to some extent, smoothed out this high price volatility.
Of course, seasonal price fluctuations also depended on other factors. In particular, the quality of milk in Moldova is traditionally determined by its fat content (rather than protein and several other parameters, as in most EU countries). Winter milk is higher in fat, whilst summer milk is lower – this is a significant reason for price fluctuations.
Furthermore, ‘seasonal’ (and geopolitical) fluctuations in energy costs have, from a certain point onwards, become a significant factor influencing the production costs of raw materials and finished products in the dairy sector. This factor was also partly ‘offset’ by ‘milk’ subsidies.
Now, the uncertain status of direct budgetary payments to livestock farmers, coinciding with the onset of the cold season, may well trigger a return in Moldova to the classic seasonal fluctuations in raw milk purchase prices and, down the supply chain, lead to higher prices for dairy products in winter. That is, during the peak consumption season.
And what about imports of raw milk?
And here is another curious coincidence. According to the Ukragroconsult agency, citing the Ukrainian Association of Milk Producers, purchase prices for raw milk in Ukraine continue to rise ‘against a backdrop of increased exports of dairy products and high demand from processors’. At the start of October, the average price of extra-grade milk stood at 16.20 hryvnias per kg excluding VAT, which is 0.9 hryvnias per kg more than a month earlier. In the second half of October, prices for large consignments of extra-class milk may rise to 16.50–17.00 hryvnias per kilogram, and in November–December of this year — to 17.00–17.50 hryvnias per kilogram.
Why does this matter for Moldova’s dairy market? As Karolina Linte, executive director of the ‘Lapte’ association, explained to Logos Press, over the last few years Moldova’s dairy factories have been importing around 40,000 tonnes of raw milk from Ukraine annually. This is relatively little, given that in Moldova, during the period in question, industrial enterprises in the sector process around 240,000–260,000 tonnes of milk annually. For local dairies, local dairy farmers are an obvious priority in their raw milk procurement programmes.
However, Ukrainian imports of raw milk into the Moldovan market appear to be on a very large scale when compared with the preferential EU quota for imports of this raw milk into the Moldovan market – around 5,000 tonnes per year.
It is also worth noting the important fact that imports of raw milk into Moldova take place during periods of the season when the domestic market experiences a certain decline in raw milk supplies (in winter and spring), or at times when prices for raw milk abroad fall.
Consequently, it can be assumed that this winter there will not be an excess of cheap Ukrainian milk available as a resource to make up for the seasonal shortfall and curb the seasonal rise in prices for raw milk in Moldova.
This story was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.The translation was also reviewed by the Logos Press editorial team.
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