2026 Nobel Prize in Economics: Who Are the Leading Favorites?

The Swedish Academy is preparing to announce the winner of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics

The winner of the 2026 Alfred Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences will be announced tomorrow, 12 October, in the morning. The decision is made by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. This announcement will traditionally bring this year’s ‘Nobel Week’ to a close. For 50 years, the official list of nominees has been kept secret prior to the announcement, in accordance with the rules of the Nobel Foundation. Nevertheless, experts point to likely contenders.

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Based on expert assessments, academic discussions and forecasting platforms, the following are cited as likely favourites:

– Ariel Pakes, Stephen Berry and James Levinson. They are recognised for their fundamental contributions to empirical microeconomics. In particular, they developed the BLP (Berry-Levinsohn-Pakes) method, which is widely used to estimate demand and analyse sectoral markets.

– Suhein Eteya. He is recognised for his research at the intersection of economics and computer science. His work focuses on the development of causal analysis methods and the application of machine learning in econometrics.

– Partha Dasgupta. His work in the fields of environmental economics and climate change has attracted attention.

– Robert Barro. He is cited as a potential candidate for his research in macroeconomics, including in the fields of economic growth theory and monetary policy.

– Michael Woodford. His contribution to the theory and practice of monetary policy is highlighted in the assessments. Influenced by his work, central banks have begun to make greater use of forward guidance in their communication strategies.

– Sidney Winter. He is mentioned for his work, in which economic processes are examined from an evolutionary perspective. Winter demonstrated that firms, like biological species, adapt to their environment and develop survival strategies. His research has helped to revive interest in evolutionary economics.

– Susan Aitken and Hal Varian. They were also named among the potential candidates for their pioneering analysis of the economics of information technology.

The prize money for 2026 amounts to 12 million Swedish kronor (approximately $1.15 million). The previous year, in 2025, the prize was awarded to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson for their research into the role of state institutions in the prosperity of nations.

Alfred Nobel

This story was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.The translation was also reviewed by the Logos Press editorial team.

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