Ukraine: grain harvest and export forecast 2026/27

Ukrainian Grain Association: forecast of harvest and export of grain and oilseed raw materials from Ukraine

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA) forecasts the harvest of grain and oilseed crops in 2026 at the level of 83.6 million tons. The UZA's estimate for 2025 is 80 million tons of these products.

1 June 2026

Vadim Chetrari Reading time: 2 minutes

With such a harvest, exports in the new 2026/2027 season could potentially reach 50.8 million tons (the current season export estimate is 42.3 million tons). However, this is an optimistic scenario, the realization of which will be possible if Ukraine’s logistical problems do not worsen due to the war.

It should be recalled that the inability to export significant volumes of grown crops due to logistical problems has an extremely negative impact not only on Ukrainian agricultural producers and the price situation in the domestic market, but can also be a severe blow to the entire Ukrainian economy, ukragroconsult wrote.

The UZA estimates the wheat harvest in 2026 at 22.8 million tons (22.5 million tons in 2025). Potential wheat exports in 2025/2026 MY could reach 17 million tons (in the current season – 13.5 million tons).
Barley harvest in 2026 according to UZA estimates will be 5.2 million tons (in 2025 – 4.9 million tons), and potential exports in 2025/2026 marketing year could be expected at about 2.2 million tons (in the current season – expected 1.6 million tons).
Expectations for this year’s corn crop are good due to favorable weather conditions so far. It will potentially amount to 32.1 million tons (31.1 million tons in 2025). And potential exports in the new season could reach 27 million tons, but again under conditions of unimpeded logistics (in the current season – 22 million tons).
Sunflower harvest in 2026 can be expected at the level of 13.3 million tons (in 2025 – 11.1 million tons). Traditionally, almost all sunflower will be processed in Ukraine – 13.5 million tons.
In 2026, rapeseed harvest may reach 3.4 million tons (in 2025 – 3.2 million tons), while exports in 2025/2026 may amount to only 1.9 million tons, the rest will be processed in Ukraine.
This year’s soybean crop could be 4.9 million tons (5 million tons in 2025). Potential exports could amount to 2.3 million tons in 2025/2026 (2.9 million tons this season), and the rest will be processed in Ukraine, as its export is difficult due to legal restrictions, as well as rapeseed.