Following the de-escalation of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which led to a drop in oil prices, investor sentiment toward “safe-haven assets” shifted. This was especially true after oil prices fell. Global oil prices fell by about 5–6%, which dampened inflation expectations.
Against this backdrop, the U.S. Dollar Index (which tracks the dollar’s value against a basket of six currencies from trading partner countries) slipped to 101.2 points on March 5. Analysts note that the situation remains fragile. If tensions begin to rise again or attacks resume, the dollar could quickly recover from its decline.
The situation temporarily strengthened the Moldovan leu (MDL), pushing the dollar exchange rate down to 17.58 lei. However, at the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) auction on July 27, 2026, the exchange rate adjusted to 17.6361 lei per dollar due to domestic fluctuations in demand.
The euro accounts for more than 80% of the net foreign currency entering the Moldovan market from individuals. As the global EUR/USD exchange rate rose amid the dollar’s weakening, the leu’s position strengthened in the cross-rate.
