However, many consumers perceive price growth as much higher than official statistics show. Economists explain this gap by the structure of consumer spending, the rapid rise in the price of food and utilities, and the effect of so-called “hidden inflation”.
Foodstuffs are becoming more expensive than general inflation
In Moldova, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is divided into three main groups, Trading Economics explains:
– Non-food products, accounting for 36% of the total weight;
– food products (38%);
– services, which account for the remaining 26%.
But even within these groups there is a certain division of the “weight” of individual goods and services. In particular, meat accounts for 8%, milk and dairy products – 5%, vegetables 4%, fruits 3% and bread 2%.
Many economists also see a certain “injustice” in accounting for inflation. And they refer to the fact that the poorest segments of the population cannot afford meat every day (or even every week), but they buy bread and milk every day.
Non-food items consist mainly of fuel (6%), clothing (4%), medical supplies (3%) and footwear (2%). Meanwhile, services include housing (9%), utilities (7%) and transportation (3%).
Based on this gradation, the “hidden” inflation, which is felt by citizens, but which is not visible to official statistics, becomes a little more understandable.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the most noticeable price increase in Moldova in recent months has been for food products – the category that occupies the largest share of expenditures of the majority of households.
According to statistics:
– Eggs went up in price by more than 40% in March 2026;
– fruit – by 16-21%;
– vegetables by more than 12%;
– bread – by about 5.7-10%;
– dairy products – by 4-5%.
In other words, official inflation is calculated as an average index for a broad basket of goods and services, which also includes categories with more moderate price increases or temporary decreases in value. That is why consumer “felt inflation” is often higher than the official figure.
How the effect of “hidden inflation” arises
Economists note that for low- and middle-income families, the share of expenditures on food and utilities is much higher than the average statistical basket. As a result, the growth of prices for basic goods is perceived especially acutely.
Analysts also note that the perception of inflation is more dependent on regularly purchased goods – food, transportation, utilities – than on infrequent purchases of household appliances or electronics, the prices of which can grow more slowly.
An additional factor remains the rising cost of services and utilities. They are permanent and obligatory items of expenditures, but in the structure of inflation accounting they occupy less significant specific weight than, for example, non-food products, spending on which may not be permanent and not obligatory (26% vs. 36%).
Therefore, even if the overall inflation index slows down, the growth of energy and services costs continues to put pressure on family budgets and business costs.
Why statistics and feelings diverge
With all this, economists emphasize that the official inflation index is not “erroneous”. It reflects the average consumption pattern across the economy, Trading Economics emphasizes.
However, the spending patterns of specific families may differ significantly from the statistical model.
In addition, the perception of inflation is reinforced:
– Moldova’s high dependence on imports;
– volatility of prices for energy resources;
– growth of logistics and transportation costs;
– seasonal fluctuations in fruit and vegetable prices;
– slow growth of real incomes of the population.
Against this background, even moderate official inflation can be perceived by the population as significantly higher, especially in the segment of everyday expenses.
“Feelings” cannot be ignored
Nevertheless, the gap between statistical and “felt” inflation becomes not only a social but also an economic problem. Therefore, this phenomenon cannot be ignored under the pretext of the need to use only the data of official statistics.
First of all, the perception of inflation directly affects public confidence in economic policy, even if formal macroeconomic indicators demonstrate stabilization.
For business it can also have direct consequences: “felt” inflation higher than the official inflation rate leads to a change in consumer behavior. They start to save more, buy cheaper goods, cut back on unnecessary expenses and react painfully to upward price changes.
In this context, “hidden” inflation is as much an economic factor as official statistics, many economists believe.
