For now, however, some initial conclusions can be drawn based on what farmers are saying as they compare yields and discuss figures with officials from ministries and agencies. First, it appears that as the harvest progresses, the yield forecast is rising—currently, the range for cereal crops (barley, wheat) is 4.8–5.2 metric tons per hectare.
This is even slightly higher than the initial estimates at the start of the harvest campaign in Moldova, and higher than the average for Ukraine’s Odesa region at that time—4.5 metric tons per hectare. However, in most of Ukraine, rainfall has so far been heavier than in Moldova. It may be that the figures for the interim grain harvest results have already changed.
Another update: as the harvest season progresses, data on the acreage of crops planted for the 2026 harvest is becoming more specific. For example, ahead of the harvest in Moldova, the area planted with wheat was estimated at 350,000 hectares. Now, officials from the MAIA Ministry state that, according to updated data, it is closer to 340,000 hectares. Nevertheless, there is evidence supporting the preliminary conclusion that this year’s gross wheat and barley harvests will be close to the highest levels seen in a decade.
Logistics Is the Key
And here’s another important factor. This year is seeing a repeat of the situation from the past few years: the timing of crop harvests is shifting and overlapping. Specifically, the harvest of rapeseed, barley, and wheat is currently taking place simultaneously, rather than sequentially as was previously the norm. Moreover, as experts note, in some northern regions of the country, the barley harvest is in full swing, while the rapeseed harvest has not yet begun. In this situation, a significant number of farms—especially those that are not very well-equipped—are experiencing (non-critical) logistical challenges in harvesting virtually all crops at once.
The situation with purchasing crops from the first group is also not entirely clear-cut. Market analysts in Moldova and Ukraine recommend that farmers hoping for higher grain prices be patient and wait a little while. As for rapeseed, they advise selling it quickly as it becomes available.
In fact, this is exactly what is happening. As Igor Tagadyuk, director of the “Agrostoc” business cooperative, noted in an interview with a Logos Press correspondent, the company is currently finalizing forward contracts for the purchase and export of rapeseed for July and intends to stick to its purchasing schedule in the coming months.
As Logos Press previously reported, the starting price for Moldovan rapeseed from the 2026 harvest currently ranges from 9.2 to 9.5 lei/kg (including VAT).
